4 ms·

What is the endgame here for Putin? It seems like for the most part that no one is going to do anything to stop him.

Y-bar 5y ago
He said it himself in his speech: He does not consider Ukraine (the whole country) a separate nation, but rather a lost piece of Russia which he intends to "reunite" into his nation.
qqtt 5y ago
Russia wants to permanently block Ukraine's entry into NATO. By holding on to disputed territories indefinitely, they can make that happen. See also: Russia support of Georgia's breakaway territories after Georgia was inching closer to NATO membership. This is the exact same thing with the exact same playbook.
- csee 5y ago
  I don't get how capturing these two territories can prevent Ukraine from getting NATO membership. Won't this make them want it even more?
  - qqtt 5y ago
    It would certainly increase pressure on the rest of the country (and other areas in Europe) to join NATO, but the immediate effect is an abandonment of NATO aspirations due to the territory conflict. Georgia was essentially on the cusp of receiving an invitation to join NATO when Russia invaded and now holds what amounts to a 'veto' card to hold off their membership. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/nato20-2020/end-the-russian-veto-on-georgian-accession/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/nato20-2020/e... There are still voices calling for Georgia to maneuver into NATO, but in 2022 it seems much more unrealistic compared to before the 2008 invasion.
  - lamp987 5y ago
    no one is insane enough to accept a half occupied country into a defense pact. that would automatically mean nato has to either declare war on russia or break the pact.
  - tomjen3 5y ago
    Sure. Unfortunately NATO won't accept them as long as they have territorial disputes with another country. Short term the US should have given Ukraine their own nukes and Russia would have backed of.
Animats 5y ago
The endgame is first buffer zones against the West around Russia, and if possible, restoration of the pre-USSR Russian Empire. That's what Putin says, and it's consistent with his actions. First South Ossetia, then Crimea, then Belarus, now Donetsk.
- tomjen3 5y ago
  I don't get why Russia wants a buffer zone. Russia is huge and has proven time and time again that you can invade but you are just going to be destroyed. Access to the Caspian sea, sure. Oilfields, sure. But the one thing Russia doesn't need is more land.
  - Animats 5y ago
    Historically, food. Ukraine has a good climate for agriculture and large flat areas with water, like the American midwest. Most of Russia is marginal for agriculture.
- myth_drannon 5y ago
  I would say Kazakhstan next, but China is heavily entrenched there so dunno about it.
csomar 5y ago
Make a friendly Ukraining nation, or if that fails (maybe that already failed), then annex Ukraine to Russia. His endgame is to keep NATO out of his borders and ensure the loyalty of his subjects (Belarus, Ukraine, Stan countries etc...) In this recent turmoil, he used Belarus to move troops. If Belarus was not a loyal subject, they'd not have allowed that. It would have put him in a weaker position in the case of a full-on war.

He said it himself in his speech: He does not consider Ukraine (the whole country) a separate nation, but rather a lost piece of Russia which he intends to "reunite" into his nation.

qqtt 5y ago

Russia wants to permanently block Ukraine's entry into NATO. By holding on to disputed territories indefinitely, they can make that happen. See also: Russia support of Georgia's breakaway territories after Georgia was inching closer to NATO membership. This is the exact same thing with the exact same playbook.

csee 5y ago
I don't get how capturing these two territories can prevent Ukraine from getting NATO membership. Won't this make them want it even more?
- qqtt 5y ago
  It would certainly increase pressure on the rest of the country (and other areas in Europe) to join NATO, but the immediate effect is an abandonment of NATO aspirations due to the territory conflict. Georgia was essentially on the cusp of receiving an invitation to join NATO when Russia invaded and now holds what amounts to a 'veto' card to hold off their membership. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/nato20-2020/end-the-russian-veto-on-georgian-accession/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/nato20-2020/e... There are still voices calling for Georgia to maneuver into NATO, but in 2022 it seems much more unrealistic compared to before the 2008 invasion.
- lamp987 5y ago
  no one is insane enough to accept a half occupied country into a defense pact. that would automatically mean nato has to either declare war on russia or break the pact.
- tomjen3 5y ago
  Sure. Unfortunately NATO won't accept them as long as they have territorial disputes with another country. Short term the US should have given Ukraine their own nukes and Russia would have backed of.

Animats 5y ago

The endgame is first buffer zones against the West around Russia, and if possible, restoration of the pre-USSR Russian Empire. That's what Putin says, and it's consistent with his actions. First South Ossetia, then Crimea, then Belarus, now Donetsk.

tomjen3 5y ago
I don't get why Russia wants a buffer zone. Russia is huge and has proven time and time again that you can invade but you are just going to be destroyed. Access to the Caspian sea, sure. Oilfields, sure. But the one thing Russia doesn't need is more land.
- Animats 5y ago
  Historically, food. Ukraine has a good climate for agriculture and large flat areas with water, like the American midwest. Most of Russia is marginal for agriculture.
myth_drannon 5y ago
I would say Kazakhstan next, but China is heavily entrenched there so dunno about it.

csomar 5y ago

Make a friendly Ukraining nation, or if that fails (maybe that already failed), then annex Ukraine to Russia. His endgame is to keep NATO out of his borders and ensure the loyalty of his subjects (Belarus, Ukraine, Stan countries etc...) In this recent turmoil, he used Belarus to move troops. If Belarus was not a loyal subject, they'd not have allowed that. It would have put him in a weaker position in the case of a full-on war.