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Why Ukraine Crisis Is West's Fault: Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin (2014) [pdf]

12 points by georgecmu 5y ago

rini17 5y ago
This causes more questions than it answers. What is in fact the "rationalist" strategy of Russia, what is/was its offer toward eastern Europe? And what was the alternative? Stopping all EU expansion at the former iron curtain? That would likely backfire and cause harm to millions of people, similar to rejection of Turkey.
- twelve40 5y ago
  The offer is simple, and it's actually listed in the last sentence of the article: > They can continue their current policy, which will exacer- bate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process—a scenario in which everyone would come out a loser. Or they can switch gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations with Moscow. In other words, be smart like Finland, build yourself a stable, non-corrupt neutral country, and everyone wins.
  - rini17 5y ago
    How are you so sure it would work? We are not talking about one relatively small and homogenous nation which could carry on through the frustration of limited souvereignty. We are talking about whole middle third of the continent with simmering ethnic, religious, etc. tensions. If West just slapped the door on them, the results would be catastrophic, there would be several additional Yugoslavias between Berlin and Moscow. EU brought the stability and prosperity to whole region and nobody including Hungary and Poland autocrats want to lose that.
    - twelve40 5y ago
      Nothing is ever guaranteed. However, taking a failed state that has never in 31 years had a coherent government, had multiple coups, has been the poorest country in Europe, has been run by the same thugs for the last couple of decades despite those coups - basically, a European version of Somalia - and lacing it with Western weapons and military instructors does not seem to be the wisest idea. (or even a good path into EU, for that matter)
      - rini17 5y ago
        What is done right now, is another question. The topic here is about past failures of the West. When all realistic alternatives were worse - that forced neutrality would likely create Ukraines and Yugoslavias spanning whole middle third of Europe - is that actually a failure?

12 points by georgecmu 5y ago

This causes more questions than it answers. What is in fact the "rationalist" strategy of Russia, what is/was its offer toward eastern Europe? And what was the alternative? Stopping all EU expansion at the former iron curtain? That would likely backfire and cause harm to millions of people, similar to rejection of Turkey.

twelve40 5y ago
The offer is simple, and it's actually listed in the last sentence of the article: > They can continue their current policy, which will exacer- bate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process—a scenario in which everyone would come out a loser. Or they can switch gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations with Moscow. In other words, be smart like Finland, build yourself a stable, non-corrupt neutral country, and everyone wins.
- rini17 5y ago
  How are you so sure it would work? We are not talking about one relatively small and homogenous nation which could carry on through the frustration of limited souvereignty. We are talking about whole middle third of the continent with simmering ethnic, religious, etc. tensions. If West just slapped the door on them, the results would be catastrophic, there would be several additional Yugoslavias between Berlin and Moscow. EU brought the stability and prosperity to whole region and nobody including Hungary and Poland autocrats want to lose that.
  - twelve40 5y ago
    Nothing is ever guaranteed. However, taking a failed state that has never in 31 years had a coherent government, had multiple coups, has been the poorest country in Europe, has been run by the same thugs for the last couple of decades despite those coups - basically, a European version of Somalia - and lacing it with Western weapons and military instructors does not seem to be the wisest idea. (or even a good path into EU, for that matter)
    - rini17 5y ago
      What is done right now, is another question. The topic here is about past failures of the West. When all realistic alternatives were worse - that forced neutrality would likely create Ukraines and Yugoslavias spanning whole middle third of Europe - is that actually a failure?