3 ms·

The individual farmer could do it and could fill a milk pail for his family's needs for the day, but he couldn't fill a tanker truck for Krogers. He could walk

The individual farmer could do it and could fill a milk pail for his family's needs for the day, but he couldn't fill a tanker truck for Krogers. He could walk the fields and sow seed by the fistful from a bag over his shoulders, but he couldn't drill 30 acres per hour like he could with a modern tractor and planter. Technology in agriculture is a force multiplier that has allowed the fraction of the population employed as farmers to crash from 90% in colonial times, 83% in the year 1800, 55% in 1850, 31% in 1900, 5% in 1950, and down to less than 1% today. That 1% could not feed the world without automated milking parlors and high-speed tractors. If Y22k hit John Deere's DRM this spring, some 50% of fields would lay fallow, and we'd have 50% less food in the fall....it would be devastating.

simonh 5y ago
>If Y22k hit John Deere's DRM this spring, some 50% of fields would lay fallow, and we'd have 50% less food in the fall....it would be devastating. I actually doubt it, those aren't the only tractors in the world, or even the US. It would be annoying, and expensive, but hardly the end of the world. Also consider that the fact these things are automated makes us less susceptible to other forms of supply chain disruption that might affect a highly manual process, like a pandemic for example.
- LeifCarrotson 5y ago
  John Deere has 53% of the US tractor market and 60% of the combine market. They're not the only tractors in the US, true, just most of them. The machines are run late into the night, 7 days a week, during the narrow window of weather appropriate for planting and harvesting seasons. Prices would skyrocket, which would reduce demand, and yes, consumption would change, and yes, food would be imported...but at the margins, millions would starve.
- analyte123 5y ago
  Crops have to be harvested in a fairly narrow window. You can't just let the crop sit there for a month while you wait for other people to finish using their tractors.

simonh 5y ago

>If Y22k hit John Deere's DRM this spring, some 50% of fields would lay fallow, and we'd have 50% less food in the fall....it would be devastating. I actually doubt it, those aren't the only tractors in the world, or even the US. It would be annoying, and expensive, but hardly the end of the world. Also consider that the fact these things are automated makes us less susceptible to other forms of supply chain disruption that might affect a highly manual process, like a pandemic for example.

LeifCarrotson 5y ago
John Deere has 53% of the US tractor market and 60% of the combine market. They're not the only tractors in the US, true, just most of them. The machines are run late into the night, 7 days a week, during the narrow window of weather appropriate for planting and harvesting seasons. Prices would skyrocket, which would reduce demand, and yes, consumption would change, and yes, food would be imported...but at the margins, millions would starve.
analyte123 5y ago
Crops have to be harvested in a fairly narrow window. You can't just let the crop sit there for a month while you wait for other people to finish using their tractors.