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>There is no sign of a decrease in demand for labour in countries like the US or Germany: In fact there is growing evidence that increased automation actually
by simonh 5y ago
>There is no sign of a decrease in demand for labour in countries like the US or Germany:
In fact there is growing evidence that increased automation actually increases demand for workers in the economy. It might reduce employment in the actual factory itself, but the remaining jobs there are more skilled and technical, the higher efficiency draws investment and allows companies to scale up, there's a significant trickle-down to the surrounding economy.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adigaskell/2020/06/18/why-deep-investment-in-automation-results-in-more-jobs/?sh=66edd3422df0 https://www.forbes.com/sites/adigaskell/2020/06/18/why-deep-...
This makes sense when you look at the history of automation, but it's only recently that the processes that underly the way automation actually stimulates and enhances an economy have been better understood.
There is an argument that AI is different because it will substitute humans more completely, but we are a long, long way off from anything like that. The kinds of automation we have now, in terms of the effects on the economy and employment, are much more like automation over the last century or two than strong AI that renders humans fundamentally obsolete.
- lytefm 5y agoYes, exactly. Arntz et al [2019] also put this into a much more reasonable perspective that „We'll lose our jobs due to Software and AI“: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334386191_Digitalization_and_the_Future_of_Work_Macroeconomic_Consequences https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334386191_Digitaliz... They also conclude that only 9% of all US jobs are actually at risk due to automation, using a much more reasonable approch that Frey and Osbourne [2017] who conlude 47% of the population with a risk > 70%: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162516302244 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00401...