3 ms·
I think the current bubble is very short-term. It has been caused by 10 years of low interest rates pushing a lot of capital into startups. The recent "next lev
by randomsearch 5y ago
I think the current bubble is very short-term. It has been caused by 10 years of low interest rates pushing a lot of capital into startups. The recent "next level" hysteria in the market has been caused by stimulus packages in the US and elsewhere. A lot of what we're seeing is very reminiscent of the .com bubble.
That said, I do think underlying the froth is a genuine increased societal demand for tech and programmers, so I don't expect the collapse to be as bad as .com outside of crypto and other hyper-bubbles. Yes, there will be a lot of job losses, but most engineers will just experience a salary correction rather than years of unemployment.
In the long-term, a move away from traditional programming will be necessary to solve the supply problem. Tools like SquareSpace, which are really awful but do genuinely replace a lot of low-end web dev work, will eventually mature and begin to eat up a decent amount of engineering demand. We'll see lots of these Excel-like apps that can serve low-end business needs reasonably well and remove the need for engineers.
I think there are a lot of opportunities making great creative tools for programming-like tasks, just as we've had a few decades of innovation in graphic design or publishing tools - there are lots of very valuable startup opportunities waiting for those who have the motivation and patience to figure out how to help non-nerds do nerdy things.
- aembleton 5y agoWhat's so awful about SquareSpace? I've recommended it to a few people who were after a website.
- randomsearch 5y agoIt's a slow, clunky, imitation of what could be. It's a useful tool only because it's the least worst such tool we have. I would also recommend it and similar tools to non-technical folks.