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A supply factor that this article doesn't consider - a big chunk of the new wave of graduates are software engineers in different parts of the world. And buildi

A supply factor that this article doesn't consider - a big chunk of the new wave of graduates are software engineers in different parts of the world. And building a team in those countries will be a big trend. Rippling did this well, building a team in India. That should reduce the comp in the Bay Area.

twblalock 5y ago
People have been predicting that outsourcing would lower US salaries and take US jobs for over 20 years and it hasn't happened. Nothing is different now.
- echelon 5y ago
  > Nothing is different now. 1. Venture capital is making major investments in India, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. At a scale never before seen. 2. Offices will never happen again. Now employees could be in Antarctica for all you're concerned -- as long as they're on a relatively friendly time zone with the rest of their team, it'll work. This time is different.
  - twblalock 5y ago
    Offices are still "happening" and will not go away. The current optimism about remote work is overly exuberant, and many people will be disappointed about the pullback of remote work over the next few years. Also, people are dreaming if they think Silicon Valley companies will continue to pay Silicon Valley salaries to workers in other locations, even if remote work continues to be broadly accepted. Furthermore, India and much of Europe (especially eastern Europe) are definitely not friendly time zones for collaboration with colleagues in North America. It's really not different this time.
    - echelon 5y ago
      > The current optimism about remote work is overly exuberant, and many people will be disappointed about the pullback of remote work over the next few years. Mostly anecdotal evidence follows. At my company, - Most teams have two or more remote ICs - A large percentage of teams have the majority of their ICs in a different location than their manager. - A large percentage of ICs are now no longer near an office (or in the same state as an office) - Offices are still ghost towns They're not going to pull a magic wand and make all of us go back. Cat's out of the bag. They couldn't afford to fire these folks, either. > Also, people are dreaming if they think Silicon Valley companies will continue to pay Silicon Valley salaries to workers in other locations, even if remote work continues to be broadly accepted. I've received near-SF wages in Atlanta for eight years. Before the market pullback, my total comp was $500k a year. It's still ridiculously good. > Furthermore, India and much of Europe (especially eastern Europe) are definitely not friendly time zones for collaboration with colleagues in North America. We're building out offices there. I've had meetings with Europe, Australia, and Japan this year. A first. If your company won't, new capital funding new startups will take advantage of those workers and bring them into the fold.
      - Apocryphon 5y ago
        And it remains to be seen how well cross-organizational coordination in tech will fare across such disparate time zones. And surely some of that funding would be going to local tech companies in those areas, and not simply branches of North American multinationals. All of these regions have their own businesses too, you know. Not everyone is raring to work remotely for Silicon Valley.
  - irrational 5y ago
    From the USA, there aren’t very many friendly time zones. Both Europe and India are absolutely terrible time zone wise. I absolutely hate having very early and very late meetings (i.e., anything before 9 and after 5 Pacific time). Central and South America on the other hand…
    - Kostic 5y ago
      It's somewhat OK if you're in the Eastern timezone. I work from Serbia with a NYC team and it's bearable.
    - bryanrasmussen 5y ago
      If you work in a particularly hot climate maybe sleeping during the day and working at evening, night would not be that bad.
  - Falkon1313 5y ago
    Legal hasn't suddenly drastically changed. Customers (the big customers) care about where their data is; which jurisdiction(s) it is stored in or passes through. Employers also care what laws they have to deal with regarding employment and what they have to do in terms of benefits and stuff. Employees in multiple states is difficult enough, having to deal with employees in several countries is a significant burden that many employers would prefer not to deal with, or can't afford to. That hasn't changed. Over the years, I've worked with developers from Germany, Denmark, Russia, Canada, India, Brazil, and even that most bizarre of alien cultures, DC-area government contractors. Even if we can all speak the same language (albeit with different accents), different cultures have markedly different assumptions and understandings and ways of communicating and working and different values. That can be quite difficult for management to deal with. That hasn't changed. When you add up all the language, cultural, legal, timezone, foreign exchange, and other barriers, what really has suddenly changed? Not much. Most companies will still prefer employees that fit in as much as possible and don't cause lots of extra work for the company or cause them to lose sales with potential big customers (because of the cross-jurisdiction legal stuff).
- disambiguation 5y ago
  This is what's very different now: https://www.statista.com/statistics/792074/india-internet-penetration-rate/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/792074/india-internet-pe... 2009: 5% 2020: 50%
  - twblalock 5y ago
    That stat alone doesn't tell us much about the nature of remote work. Yes, more people in India have internet access now, but that is not a recent development and it predates the pandemic. 2019: 48.48%. The year before that, 38.02%. In fact it's been around 34-35% since 2016, which was 6 years ago. No change in the amount of outsourcing so far! Having internet access is not going to magically turn everyone into software developers, and even if it did, all the other challenges of outsourcing wouldn't disappear.

twblalock 5y ago

People have been predicting that outsourcing would lower US salaries and take US jobs for over 20 years and it hasn't happened. Nothing is different now.

echelon 5y ago
> Nothing is different now. 1. Venture capital is making major investments in India, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. At a scale never before seen. 2. Offices will never happen again. Now employees could be in Antarctica for all you're concerned -- as long as they're on a relatively friendly time zone with the rest of their team, it'll work. This time is different.
- twblalock 5y ago
  Offices are still "happening" and will not go away. The current optimism about remote work is overly exuberant, and many people will be disappointed about the pullback of remote work over the next few years. Also, people are dreaming if they think Silicon Valley companies will continue to pay Silicon Valley salaries to workers in other locations, even if remote work continues to be broadly accepted. Furthermore, India and much of Europe (especially eastern Europe) are definitely not friendly time zones for collaboration with colleagues in North America. It's really not different this time.
  - echelon 5y ago
    > The current optimism about remote work is overly exuberant, and many people will be disappointed about the pullback of remote work over the next few years. Mostly anecdotal evidence follows. At my company, - Most teams have two or more remote ICs - A large percentage of teams have the majority of their ICs in a different location than their manager. - A large percentage of ICs are now no longer near an office (or in the same state as an office) - Offices are still ghost towns They're not going to pull a magic wand and make all of us go back. Cat's out of the bag. They couldn't afford to fire these folks, either. > Also, people are dreaming if they think Silicon Valley companies will continue to pay Silicon Valley salaries to workers in other locations, even if remote work continues to be broadly accepted. I've received near-SF wages in Atlanta for eight years. Before the market pullback, my total comp was $500k a year. It's still ridiculously good. > Furthermore, India and much of Europe (especially eastern Europe) are definitely not friendly time zones for collaboration with colleagues in North America. We're building out offices there. I've had meetings with Europe, Australia, and Japan this year. A first. If your company won't, new capital funding new startups will take advantage of those workers and bring them into the fold.
    - Apocryphon 5y ago
      And it remains to be seen how well cross-organizational coordination in tech will fare across such disparate time zones. And surely some of that funding would be going to local tech companies in those areas, and not simply branches of North American multinationals. All of these regions have their own businesses too, you know. Not everyone is raring to work remotely for Silicon Valley.
- irrational 5y ago
  From the USA, there aren’t very many friendly time zones. Both Europe and India are absolutely terrible time zone wise. I absolutely hate having very early and very late meetings (i.e., anything before 9 and after 5 Pacific time). Central and South America on the other hand…
  - Kostic 5y ago
    It's somewhat OK if you're in the Eastern timezone. I work from Serbia with a NYC team and it's bearable.
  - bryanrasmussen 5y ago
    If you work in a particularly hot climate maybe sleeping during the day and working at evening, night would not be that bad.
- Falkon1313 5y ago
  Legal hasn't suddenly drastically changed. Customers (the big customers) care about where their data is; which jurisdiction(s) it is stored in or passes through. Employers also care what laws they have to deal with regarding employment and what they have to do in terms of benefits and stuff. Employees in multiple states is difficult enough, having to deal with employees in several countries is a significant burden that many employers would prefer not to deal with, or can't afford to. That hasn't changed. Over the years, I've worked with developers from Germany, Denmark, Russia, Canada, India, Brazil, and even that most bizarre of alien cultures, DC-area government contractors. Even if we can all speak the same language (albeit with different accents), different cultures have markedly different assumptions and understandings and ways of communicating and working and different values. That can be quite difficult for management to deal with. That hasn't changed. When you add up all the language, cultural, legal, timezone, foreign exchange, and other barriers, what really has suddenly changed? Not much. Most companies will still prefer employees that fit in as much as possible and don't cause lots of extra work for the company or cause them to lose sales with potential big customers (because of the cross-jurisdiction legal stuff).
disambiguation 5y ago
This is what's very different now: https://www.statista.com/statistics/792074/india-internet-penetration-rate/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/792074/india-internet-pe... 2009: 5% 2020: 50%
- twblalock 5y ago
  That stat alone doesn't tell us much about the nature of remote work. Yes, more people in India have internet access now, but that is not a recent development and it predates the pandemic. 2019: 48.48%. The year before that, 38.02%. In fact it's been around 34-35% since 2016, which was 6 years ago. No change in the amount of outsourcing so far! Having internet access is not going to magically turn everyone into software developers, and even if it did, all the other challenges of outsourcing wouldn't disappear.