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> The markets are doing their thing. Everyone sees tech workers making money and just generally having a good time and they think: “Hey that sounds like a good

> The markets are doing their thing. Everyone sees tech workers making money and just generally having a good time and they think: “Hey that sounds like a good career choice”. It seems like you could replace tech workers with any other profession that sounds like a good career choice. Can literally everyone (or even the majority) learn to code? Do they want to learn to code? In my experience, the answer to both questions is no.

beckingz 5y ago
The system works! In reality, we will likely see some aspects of software development become less well compensated, while other aspects will continue to be rare and highly valued.
- ianai 5y ago
  That’s where I thought it was headed…in 2001.
  - noogle 5y ago
    The median salary for software engineers is not that high. Still ~double the median household salary, but it's not the only profession that yields that. So you were not completely wrong.
UnpossibleJim 5y ago
I think almost anyone could learn to code, but they get to the doing of it and find out that they don't want to. Most people don't want to plan, do logic puzzles and problem solve all day, and when they figure out that, that's the majority of it in type form and some meetings thrown in, so you can do it in groups... the movie romance dies away pretty quickly. WTF! There's no cool 3D graphics and hacking while we listen to techno music?!? This is a bunch of dudes typing all day after going to a couple of stand-ups and messaging on Slack and clearing out bugs on JIRA. This sucks. I'm out =P EDIT: No offense to anyone... I meant the universal dude, of all orientations, genders and creeds.
- echelon 5y ago
  > I think almost anyone could learn to code, but they get to the doing of it and find out that they don't want to. I agree with this 100%. I think most people could learn to do our job, they just don't want to. People frequently tell me they'd like to change careers and they've been eying the software field. I explain that it's one of the best lateral jumps to make as we have all of the resources necessary to learn available freely online. I then suggest they spend one evening a week programming a video game or building a website -- some kind of self directed project. More than half of the time the person I'm telling completely zones out and loses interest. "Hm, maybe..."
- jbluepolarbear 5y ago
  I mean, I deal with cool 3D graphics and listen to dope tunes while hacking away everyday. I’m a game developer, it’s why we do :0)
balaji1 5y ago
A supply factor that this article doesn't consider - a big chunk of the new wave of graduates are software engineers in different parts of the world. And building a team in those countries will be a big trend. Rippling did this well, building a team in India. That should reduce the comp in the Bay Area.
- twblalock 5y ago
  People have been predicting that outsourcing would lower US salaries and take US jobs for over 20 years and it hasn't happened. Nothing is different now.
  - echelon 5y ago
    > Nothing is different now. 1. Venture capital is making major investments in India, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. At a scale never before seen. 2. Offices will never happen again. Now employees could be in Antarctica for all you're concerned -- as long as they're on a relatively friendly time zone with the rest of their team, it'll work. This time is different.
    - twblalock 5y ago
      Offices are still "happening" and will not go away. The current optimism about remote work is overly exuberant, and many people will be disappointed about the pullback of remote work over the next few years. Also, people are dreaming if they think Silicon Valley companies will continue to pay Silicon Valley salaries to workers in other locations, even if remote work continues to be broadly accepted. Furthermore, India and much of Europe (especially eastern Europe) are definitely not friendly time zones for collaboration with colleagues in North America. It's really not different this time.
      - echelon 5y ago
        > The current optimism about remote work is overly exuberant, and many people will be disappointed about the pullback of remote work over the next few years. Mostly anecdotal evidence follows. At my company, - Most teams have two or more remote ICs - A large percentage of teams have the majority of their ICs in a different location than their manager. - A large percentage of ICs are now no longer near an office (or in the same state as an office) - Offices are still ghost towns They're not going to pull a magic wand and make all of us go back. Cat's out of the bag. They couldn't afford to fire these folks, either. > Also, people are dreaming if they think Silicon Valley companies will continue to pay Silicon Valley salaries to workers in other locations, even if remote work continues to be broadly accepted. I've received near-SF wages in Atlanta for eight years. Before the market pullback, my total comp was $500k a year. It's still ridiculously good. > Furthermore, India and much of Europe (especially eastern Europe) are definitely not friendly time zones for collaboration with colleagues in North America. We're building out offices there. I've had meetings with Europe, Australia, and Japan this year. A first. If your company won't, new capital funding new startups will take advantage of those workers and bring them into the fold.
snowwrestler 5y ago
It’s not hard to make a living writing code. That’s why people with a high school education can do it. Obviously it’s not for everyone, but it’s also not reserved for a select few who have had a life-long passion for messing with computers. Look at the medical profession where there are tiers of expertise / earnings. Not everyone can be a neurosurgeon, obviously. But many people can make good livings. And the profession attracts many people for that reason alone. > It seems like you could replace tech workers with any other profession that sounds like a good career choice. Yes, that is exactly what is happening.
- schnitzelstoat 5y ago
  There are other differences that make it easier to move into tech too. In my country at least, the number of students that are permitted to study medicine each year is strictly limited. Similarly, in law to get a decent job one has to complete a pupillage which can be extremely hard to get and is often based on family connections etc. Finance can also be quite classist/nepotistic. So compared to these other top professions, software engineering is more meritocratic and accessible.
- Jensson 5y ago
  > It’s not hard to make a living writing code. That’s why people with a high school education can do it. Its not hard finishing college, that's why people with a high school education can do it. Having a high school education doesn't tell you how smart the person is. Maybe they would easily finish college if they tried?
  - snowwrestler 5y ago
    I agree that it is not hard to finish college.
dgb23 5y ago
In my opinion there is a huge market for teaching programming literacy. Learning to code as a means to an end that isn’t programming itself. Plenty of smart people who benefit from grounded computational thinking and communication that don’t necessarily need the nitty gritty detailed skills. Think designers, managers, sales etc.
- pid-1 5y ago
  > don’t necessarily need the nitty gritty detailed skills I think that's the challenge. Understanding computational thinking isn't very useful if you waste your afternoons fighting against crap like encoding, Windows paths, line endings, networking, setting up PostgreSQL correctly...
jdrc 5y ago
Do (hired) developers code? There is no commitment or dedication in software today and it shows from the sloppiness and intrusiveness, to the wholly undifferentiated design. There is just too much easy money that has attracted too many random people. "Developers" overestimate their value too much, and they better enjoy it while it lasts

beckingz 5y ago

The system works! In reality, we will likely see some aspects of software development become less well compensated, while other aspects will continue to be rare and highly valued.

ianai 5y ago
That’s where I thought it was headed…in 2001.
- noogle 5y ago
  The median salary for software engineers is not that high. Still ~double the median household salary, but it's not the only profession that yields that. So you were not completely wrong.

UnpossibleJim 5y ago

I think almost anyone could learn to code, but they get to the doing of it and find out that they don't want to. Most people don't want to plan, do logic puzzles and problem solve all day, and when they figure out that, that's the majority of it in type form and some meetings thrown in, so you can do it in groups... the movie romance dies away pretty quickly. WTF! There's no cool 3D graphics and hacking while we listen to techno music?!? This is a bunch of dudes typing all day after going to a couple of stand-ups and messaging on Slack and clearing out bugs on JIRA. This sucks. I'm out =P EDIT: No offense to anyone... I meant the universal dude, of all orientations, genders and creeds.

echelon 5y ago
> I think almost anyone could learn to code, but they get to the doing of it and find out that they don't want to. I agree with this 100%. I think most people could learn to do our job, they just don't want to. People frequently tell me they'd like to change careers and they've been eying the software field. I explain that it's one of the best lateral jumps to make as we have all of the resources necessary to learn available freely online. I then suggest they spend one evening a week programming a video game or building a website -- some kind of self directed project. More than half of the time the person I'm telling completely zones out and loses interest. "Hm, maybe..."
jbluepolarbear 5y ago
I mean, I deal with cool 3D graphics and listen to dope tunes while hacking away everyday. I’m a game developer, it’s why we do :0)

balaji1 5y ago

A supply factor that this article doesn't consider - a big chunk of the new wave of graduates are software engineers in different parts of the world. And building a team in those countries will be a big trend. Rippling did this well, building a team in India. That should reduce the comp in the Bay Area.

twblalock 5y ago
People have been predicting that outsourcing would lower US salaries and take US jobs for over 20 years and it hasn't happened. Nothing is different now.
- echelon 5y ago
  > Nothing is different now. 1. Venture capital is making major investments in India, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. At a scale never before seen. 2. Offices will never happen again. Now employees could be in Antarctica for all you're concerned -- as long as they're on a relatively friendly time zone with the rest of their team, it'll work. This time is different.
  - twblalock 5y ago
    Offices are still "happening" and will not go away. The current optimism about remote work is overly exuberant, and many people will be disappointed about the pullback of remote work over the next few years. Also, people are dreaming if they think Silicon Valley companies will continue to pay Silicon Valley salaries to workers in other locations, even if remote work continues to be broadly accepted. Furthermore, India and much of Europe (especially eastern Europe) are definitely not friendly time zones for collaboration with colleagues in North America. It's really not different this time.
    - echelon 5y ago
      > The current optimism about remote work is overly exuberant, and many people will be disappointed about the pullback of remote work over the next few years. Mostly anecdotal evidence follows. At my company, - Most teams have two or more remote ICs - A large percentage of teams have the majority of their ICs in a different location than their manager. - A large percentage of ICs are now no longer near an office (or in the same state as an office) - Offices are still ghost towns They're not going to pull a magic wand and make all of us go back. Cat's out of the bag. They couldn't afford to fire these folks, either. > Also, people are dreaming if they think Silicon Valley companies will continue to pay Silicon Valley salaries to workers in other locations, even if remote work continues to be broadly accepted. I've received near-SF wages in Atlanta for eight years. Before the market pullback, my total comp was $500k a year. It's still ridiculously good. > Furthermore, India and much of Europe (especially eastern Europe) are definitely not friendly time zones for collaboration with colleagues in North America. We're building out offices there. I've had meetings with Europe, Australia, and Japan this year. A first. If your company won't, new capital funding new startups will take advantage of those workers and bring them into the fold.

snowwrestler 5y ago

It’s not hard to make a living writing code. That’s why people with a high school education can do it. Obviously it’s not for everyone, but it’s also not reserved for a select few who have had a life-long passion for messing with computers. Look at the medical profession where there are tiers of expertise / earnings. Not everyone can be a neurosurgeon, obviously. But many people can make good livings. And the profession attracts many people for that reason alone. > It seems like you could replace tech workers with any other profession that sounds like a good career choice. Yes, that is exactly what is happening.

schnitzelstoat 5y ago
There are other differences that make it easier to move into tech too. In my country at least, the number of students that are permitted to study medicine each year is strictly limited. Similarly, in law to get a decent job one has to complete a pupillage which can be extremely hard to get and is often based on family connections etc. Finance can also be quite classist/nepotistic. So compared to these other top professions, software engineering is more meritocratic and accessible.
Jensson 5y ago
> It’s not hard to make a living writing code. That’s why people with a high school education can do it. Its not hard finishing college, that's why people with a high school education can do it. Having a high school education doesn't tell you how smart the person is. Maybe they would easily finish college if they tried?
- snowwrestler 5y ago
  I agree that it is not hard to finish college.

dgb23 5y ago

In my opinion there is a huge market for teaching programming literacy. Learning to code as a means to an end that isn’t programming itself. Plenty of smart people who benefit from grounded computational thinking and communication that don’t necessarily need the nitty gritty detailed skills. Think designers, managers, sales etc.

pid-1 5y ago
> don’t necessarily need the nitty gritty detailed skills I think that's the challenge. Understanding computational thinking isn't very useful if you waste your afternoons fighting against crap like encoding, Windows paths, line endings, networking, setting up PostgreSQL correctly...

jdrc 5y ago

Do (hired) developers code? There is no commitment or dedication in software today and it shows from the sloppiness and intrusiveness, to the wholly undifferentiated design. There is just too much easy money that has attracted too many random people. "Developers" overestimate their value too much, and they better enjoy it while it lasts