5 ms·

Author seems to have a zero-sum world view, and think that everything that goes up must come down. I personally don't believe in either. Tech workers will conti

by bedobi 5y ago

Author seems to have a zero-sum world view, and think that everything that goes up must come down. I personally don't believe in either. Tech workers will continue to be in increasingly high demand, and automation, AI and "no-code" or "low-code" will only intensify that trend, not diminish it.

humanrebar 5y ago
Agreed. Especially around three to ten years after the no code solution is implemented when it needs a full rewrite in order to do one of: decrease vendor lock-in, satisfy audit requirements (i.e. meaningful peer review), incorporate professional change management, or scale beyond what the relevant no code framework was designed for.
Apocryphon 5y ago
> think that everything that goes up must come down It doesn't take a pessimist to be remember Newton's apple.
- bedobi 5y ago
  No, but it does to nonsensically apply the same rule in literally every context. People and programmers are not apples. The economy and society are not gravity. I don't know what else to tell you, and I guess it doesn't matter, since people with a zero sum world view can't be convinced otherwise.
  - Apocryphon 5y ago
    There's a difference between believing there is a zero sum world view, and observing that every economy that has ever existed has generally operated on boom and bust cycles.
    - bedobi 5y ago
      I don't think anyone is disputing the economy has boom and bust cycles. But despite the great depression, two world wars, the cold war, the dot com bubble, the 08 crash, insane environmental destruction, climate change etc etc the economy is growing, the global population is growing, and rather than more and more people fighting over less and less resources, pretty much everyone everywhere is healthier and more prosperous than ever, and extreme poverty is on track to be completely eradicated in our lifetimes. (this doesn't mean there aren't exceptions, or that there isn't still lots to do to address climate change, global economic and health inequality etc etc, but it does prove the peak oil doomer zero sum world view people wrong)
      - Apocryphon 5y ago
        We have been living at the sufferance of zero interest rate policies for the last dozen years. It's hard to say what happens when the music starts slowing down. It just sounds like an extremely hubristic statement, mocking the very fates themselves, to claim that unlimited economic growth will continue indefinitely, that this era of cheap capital will continue indefinitely, and there wouldn't even be one economic downturn or hiccup to disrupt the gravy train. This is the stuff that "things that aged poorly" is made of. Optimism is one thing; irrational exuberance is another. I would rather not laugh in the face of whatever the Fed is planning to do about inflation. Hell, this was published just hours ago. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-20/federal-reserve-is-veering-toward-a-hard-economic-landing https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-20/federa...
        bedobi 5y ago
        Literally no one is saying there can't or won't be downturns or hiccups - eg, two world wars definitely qualify as both. But even they couldn't stop the overwhelming, hundreds-year long global trend towards simultaneously increasing population AND prosperity. (which, btw, definitely did not have zero interest rates) But hey, don't take my word for it, see for yourself at eg https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty
        5y ago

by bedobi 5y ago

humanrebar 5y ago

Agreed. Especially around three to ten years after the no code solution is implemented when it needs a full rewrite in order to do one of: decrease vendor lock-in, satisfy audit requirements (i.e. meaningful peer review), incorporate professional change management, or scale beyond what the relevant no code framework was designed for.

Apocryphon 5y ago

> think that everything that goes up must come down It doesn't take a pessimist to be remember Newton's apple.

bedobi 5y ago
No, but it does to nonsensically apply the same rule in literally every context. People and programmers are not apples. The economy and society are not gravity. I don't know what else to tell you, and I guess it doesn't matter, since people with a zero sum world view can't be convinced otherwise.
- Apocryphon 5y ago
  There's a difference between believing there is a zero sum world view, and observing that every economy that has ever existed has generally operated on boom and bust cycles.
  - bedobi 5y ago
    I don't think anyone is disputing the economy has boom and bust cycles. But despite the great depression, two world wars, the cold war, the dot com bubble, the 08 crash, insane environmental destruction, climate change etc etc the economy is growing, the global population is growing, and rather than more and more people fighting over less and less resources, pretty much everyone everywhere is healthier and more prosperous than ever, and extreme poverty is on track to be completely eradicated in our lifetimes. (this doesn't mean there aren't exceptions, or that there isn't still lots to do to address climate change, global economic and health inequality etc etc, but it does prove the peak oil doomer zero sum world view people wrong)
    - Apocryphon 5y ago
      We have been living at the sufferance of zero interest rate policies for the last dozen years. It's hard to say what happens when the music starts slowing down. It just sounds like an extremely hubristic statement, mocking the very fates themselves, to claim that unlimited economic growth will continue indefinitely, that this era of cheap capital will continue indefinitely, and there wouldn't even be one economic downturn or hiccup to disrupt the gravy train. This is the stuff that "things that aged poorly" is made of. Optimism is one thing; irrational exuberance is another. I would rather not laugh in the face of whatever the Fed is planning to do about inflation. Hell, this was published just hours ago. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-20/federal-reserve-is-veering-toward-a-hard-economic-landing https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-20/federa...
      - bedobi 5y ago
        Literally no one is saying there can't or won't be downturns or hiccups - eg, two world wars definitely qualify as both. But even they couldn't stop the overwhelming, hundreds-year long global trend towards simultaneously increasing population AND prosperity. (which, btw, definitely did not have zero interest rates) But hey, don't take my word for it, see for yourself at eg https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty
        5y ago