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Actually AI will catch up to doctors and lawyers much faster than to programmers. In addition, programmers have many more domains that they can switch into, ho

Actually AI will catch up to doctors and lawyers much faster than to programmers. In addition, programmers have many more domains that they can switch into, however, once the AI lawyer or AI doctor will rise, it would practically replace 90% of the lawyers/doctors.

mistrial9 5y ago
this is true for certain activities like structured information retrieval; legal opinion and binding decisions are not what is on the line.
- streetcat1 5y ago
  Right. But most lawyers and doctors work (let say 95%) is routine work. The problem with fields like law / medicine, is that you invest heavily one time (I.e. at school) in a fixed body of knowledge (law or medicine) in order to enjoy life time of protected earning. Note that the earning are protected mainly because you invested the time , and not because of some union. The Achilles heel of those professions, is that the body of knowledge is constant, with very long half life. But this also make it ready for automation. With AI, the destruction of those professions will be quick, as they will get destroy from the bottom. I.e. Even if AI make existing lawyers twice as productive, it would mean that you would need half the lawyers. If AI will make them 4x productive, you would need 25% of lawyers, etc.
  - pietromenna 5y ago
    With law I believe it can happen, but with medicine, not really. Most visits to doctors it is not about only about the sickness (or information about what medicine to get), but about socializing and somebody inspect you and discuss with you. This part, the machine cannot do. It is what is called the doctor-patient relationship. If you think this is not the important part, I cannot disagree more with you. I go to doctors only when I really need, but the pattern I see around is that people have a real long lasting trust relationship with the doctors they see.

mistrial9 5y ago

this is true for certain activities like structured information retrieval; legal opinion and binding decisions are not what is on the line.

streetcat1 5y ago
Right. But most lawyers and doctors work (let say 95%) is routine work. The problem with fields like law / medicine, is that you invest heavily one time (I.e. at school) in a fixed body of knowledge (law or medicine) in order to enjoy life time of protected earning. Note that the earning are protected mainly because you invested the time , and not because of some union. The Achilles heel of those professions, is that the body of knowledge is constant, with very long half life. But this also make it ready for automation. With AI, the destruction of those professions will be quick, as they will get destroy from the bottom. I.e. Even if AI make existing lawyers twice as productive, it would mean that you would need half the lawyers. If AI will make them 4x productive, you would need 25% of lawyers, etc.
- pietromenna 5y ago
  With law I believe it can happen, but with medicine, not really. Most visits to doctors it is not about only about the sickness (or information about what medicine to get), but about socializing and somebody inspect you and discuss with you. This part, the machine cannot do. It is what is called the doctor-patient relationship. If you think this is not the important part, I cannot disagree more with you. I go to doctors only when I really need, but the pattern I see around is that people have a real long lasting trust relationship with the doctors they see.