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Can someone explain why Putin would actually go ahead with it? It'd destroy Russia's economy and would be personally bad for Putin and his associates as they h

by csee 5y ago

Can someone explain why Putin would actually go ahead with it? It'd destroy Russia's economy and would be personally bad for Putin and his associates as they have to deal with the fallout from that. Given that Putin is neither stupid nor ideologically possessed, I can only believe it's just posturing to get negotiating leverage (which looks to have backfired given changing sentiment inside Ukraine).

RyanShook 5y ago
There are two factors that I think make invasion most likely outcome: 1. Putin’s guiding principle is being remembered as Russia’s greatest leader and the one who restored Russia to greatness. All other considerations are second. 2. Putin does not believe the sanctions the world says they will impose are actually going to be that severe.
- csee 5y ago
  (1) explains the difference between us. My model of Putin was that of a shrewd, smart, somewhat cynical person without sincere ideological convictions who is happy to enjoy his billions without much desire to rock the boat too much - perhaps just a little if he needs to shore up nationalistic support. Your model of Putin is that of a megalomaniac who wants to go down in history as a great and revered leader. Could you explain a bit on what your model is based on?
sinyug 5y ago
> Can someone explain why Putin would actually go ahead with it? If Russia fomented a "people's revolution" in Mexico and had their puppet installed as President and was then trying to bring Mexico into a Russia-led international military treaty organization which would let them place nukes south of the Rio Grande, what would the US reaction be?
- csee 5y ago
  If invading Mexico would cripple the US economy and present an existential threat to the leader, then the leader will probably decide not to do that out of simple self-preservation. If you have a different view on how hard the sanctions would bite, then that changes the calculus.

by csee 5y ago

RyanShook 5y ago

There are two factors that I think make invasion most likely outcome: 1. Putin’s guiding principle is being remembered as Russia’s greatest leader and the one who restored Russia to greatness. All other considerations are second. 2. Putin does not believe the sanctions the world says they will impose are actually going to be that severe.

csee 5y ago
(1) explains the difference between us. My model of Putin was that of a shrewd, smart, somewhat cynical person without sincere ideological convictions who is happy to enjoy his billions without much desire to rock the boat too much - perhaps just a little if he needs to shore up nationalistic support. Your model of Putin is that of a megalomaniac who wants to go down in history as a great and revered leader. Could you explain a bit on what your model is based on?

sinyug 5y ago

> Can someone explain why Putin would actually go ahead with it? If Russia fomented a "people's revolution" in Mexico and had their puppet installed as President and was then trying to bring Mexico into a Russia-led international military treaty organization which would let them place nukes south of the Rio Grande, what would the US reaction be?

csee 5y ago
If invading Mexico would cripple the US economy and present an existential threat to the leader, then the leader will probably decide not to do that out of simple self-preservation. If you have a different view on how hard the sanctions would bite, then that changes the calculus.