4 ms·

What happens if Russia invades?

3 points by RyanShook 5y ago

maxharris 5y ago
The article asserts that the intelligence agencies have evidence to support their claims. The problem I have is that the intelligence community doesn’t show its homework. How do we know this isn’t Iraqi WMD all over again? They fooled me for the last time in 2003. No war in my name.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  Yesterday on TV I've heard a security analyst say the following when answering a journalist's questions on Ukraine: "In war-like situations you should assume that everything you're told is a lie unless you can prove it isn't" I thought that was spot-on. At the moment there is no way for the general public to know what's true and what's not.
- IAmGraydon 5y ago
  >How do we know this isn’t Iraqi WMD all over again? Have you actually thought about what you posted? The US is not presenting this as evidence to justify an invasion. How did you manage to twist this into being anything like Iraq?
csee 5y ago
Can someone explain why Putin would actually go ahead with it? It'd destroy Russia's economy and would be personally bad for Putin and his associates as they have to deal with the fallout from that. Given that Putin is neither stupid nor ideologically possessed, I can only believe it's just posturing to get negotiating leverage (which looks to have backfired given changing sentiment inside Ukraine).
- RyanShook 5y ago
  There are two factors that I think make invasion most likely outcome: 1. Putin’s guiding principle is being remembered as Russia’s greatest leader and the one who restored Russia to greatness. All other considerations are second. 2. Putin does not believe the sanctions the world says they will impose are actually going to be that severe.
  - csee 5y ago
    (1) explains the difference between us. My model of Putin was that of a shrewd, smart, somewhat cynical person without sincere ideological convictions who is happy to enjoy his billions without much desire to rock the boat too much - perhaps just a little if he needs to shore up nationalistic support. Your model of Putin is that of a megalomaniac who wants to go down in history as a great and revered leader. Could you explain a bit on what your model is based on?
- sinyug 5y ago
  > Can someone explain why Putin would actually go ahead with it? If Russia fomented a "people's revolution" in Mexico and had their puppet installed as President and was then trying to bring Mexico into a Russia-led international military treaty organization which would let them place nukes south of the Rio Grande, what would the US reaction be?
  - csee 5y ago
    If invading Mexico would cripple the US economy and present an existential threat to the leader, then the leader will probably decide not to do that out of simple self-preservation. If you have a different view on how hard the sanctions would bite, then that changes the calculus.
thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
If it happens I predict: Lots of sanctions, fear, anger, and more economic troubles everywhere. Increased food and fuel costs. Refugees flood out of Ukraine into nearby countries. Humanitarian crisis and calls for international aid / assistance. More COVID outbreaks due to refugees and bad living conditions. In short, bad for everyone.
RyanShook 5y ago
Also let’s not ignore the fact that Russia and China have effectively formed an alliance: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/us/politics/russia-china-ukraine-biden.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/us/politics/russia-china-...
simonblack 5y ago
The question devolves on that big "IF". Russia will NOT invade unless it is forced to. Even the Ukrainians have said that there are no indications of that. An invasion is costly. Follow the money. What does it profit Russia to invade a piss-pot, bankrupt country like Ukraine that would be a constant drain on Russian coffers? Apart from the constant insurgent shit like happened to the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. Land? Russia has more land area and fewer people to work it than most. Extra land would be like a hole in the head for Russians. Resources? What resources does Ukraine have that Russia doesn't already have more of? Prestige? What prestige does anybody get from getting a ruin that costs more that it would give back? That's like spending up big on a derelict house in Detroit and expecting to make a profit on flipping it.

3 points by RyanShook 5y ago

The article asserts that the intelligence agencies have evidence to support their claims. The problem I have is that the intelligence community doesn’t show its homework. How do we know this isn’t Iraqi WMD all over again? They fooled me for the last time in 2003. No war in my name.

mytailorisrich 5y ago
Yesterday on TV I've heard a security analyst say the following when answering a journalist's questions on Ukraine: "In war-like situations you should assume that everything you're told is a lie unless you can prove it isn't" I thought that was spot-on. At the moment there is no way for the general public to know what's true and what's not.
IAmGraydon 5y ago
>How do we know this isn’t Iraqi WMD all over again? Have you actually thought about what you posted? The US is not presenting this as evidence to justify an invasion. How did you manage to twist this into being anything like Iraq?

csee 5y ago

Can someone explain why Putin would actually go ahead with it? It'd destroy Russia's economy and would be personally bad for Putin and his associates as they have to deal with the fallout from that. Given that Putin is neither stupid nor ideologically possessed, I can only believe it's just posturing to get negotiating leverage (which looks to have backfired given changing sentiment inside Ukraine).

RyanShook 5y ago
There are two factors that I think make invasion most likely outcome: 1. Putin’s guiding principle is being remembered as Russia’s greatest leader and the one who restored Russia to greatness. All other considerations are second. 2. Putin does not believe the sanctions the world says they will impose are actually going to be that severe.
- csee 5y ago
  (1) explains the difference between us. My model of Putin was that of a shrewd, smart, somewhat cynical person without sincere ideological convictions who is happy to enjoy his billions without much desire to rock the boat too much - perhaps just a little if he needs to shore up nationalistic support. Your model of Putin is that of a megalomaniac who wants to go down in history as a great and revered leader. Could you explain a bit on what your model is based on?
sinyug 5y ago
> Can someone explain why Putin would actually go ahead with it? If Russia fomented a "people's revolution" in Mexico and had their puppet installed as President and was then trying to bring Mexico into a Russia-led international military treaty organization which would let them place nukes south of the Rio Grande, what would the US reaction be?
- csee 5y ago
  If invading Mexico would cripple the US economy and present an existential threat to the leader, then the leader will probably decide not to do that out of simple self-preservation. If you have a different view on how hard the sanctions would bite, then that changes the calculus.

thesuperbigfrog 5y ago

If it happens I predict: Lots of sanctions, fear, anger, and more economic troubles everywhere. Increased food and fuel costs. Refugees flood out of Ukraine into nearby countries. Humanitarian crisis and calls for international aid / assistance. More COVID outbreaks due to refugees and bad living conditions. In short, bad for everyone.

RyanShook 5y ago

Also let’s not ignore the fact that Russia and China have effectively formed an alliance: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/us/politics/russia-china-ukraine-biden.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/us/politics/russia-china-...

simonblack 5y ago

The question devolves on that big "IF". Russia will NOT invade unless it is forced to. Even the Ukrainians have said that there are no indications of that. An invasion is costly. Follow the money. What does it profit Russia to invade a piss-pot, bankrupt country like Ukraine that would be a constant drain on Russian coffers? Apart from the constant insurgent shit like happened to the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. Land? Russia has more land area and fewer people to work it than most. Extra land would be like a hole in the head for Russians. Resources? What resources does Ukraine have that Russia doesn't already have more of? Prestige? What prestige does anybody get from getting a ruin that costs more that it would give back? That's like spending up big on a derelict house in Detroit and expecting to make a profit on flipping it.