6 ms·

Also: GPU's are new?

echelon 5y ago
PDAs existed before smart phones. There's an inflection point, and it's happening now. GPU-powered applications are going to eat Hollywood, music production, literally every form of entertainment. Everything a person watches or listens to. Kids will be making their own Star Wars films from their bedrooms. Every creative industry will be upended. I don't like the term "metaverse", but there are a number of spatial computing trends that are undeniably evolving at a rapid clip. Volumetrics, photogrammetry, 3D SLAM warehousing. Pose correction, relighting -- photography, telepresence, video games -- everything is going to change. And it goes without saying that deep learning is only getting started. GPUs are the next big thing.
- scarface74 5y ago
  The entire movie business is $42 Billion dollars a year and declining. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_industry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_industry The entire music industry is $23 billion a year and declining https://www.statista.com/statistics/272305/global-revenue-of-the-music-industry/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272305/global-revenue-of... Honestly, you sound like every bad pitch deck from startups. The $x industry is $y billion big. If we only get 10%…
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > The entire movie business is $42 Billion dollars a year and declining. Your own source says $136 billion for the industry, $42.2 billion is just global box office.
    - scarface74 5y ago
      Fair enough. How many of those are going to need any type of special effects?
      - echelon 5y ago
        People are going to stop recording with glass. When the inefficiencies go away, the field will enlarge dramatically. Every kid wants to be a YouTuber. What happens when you give them tools better than Spielberg has and can compress quadratic time manual labor (writing, editing, set dec, etc.) into nothing? That's not a shrinking industry.
        scarface74 5y ago
        You’ve been able to edit movies easily on personal computers for a decade. Your typical high end phone can already do 4K video.
        echelon 5y ago
        Editing movies is not easy. It's a quadratic time expenditure. High end phones still use glass and light. This requires a lot of setup from the user to get right, despite the advancement in computer vision and enhancement algorithms. The former is fixed by making the edit part of the act of capture. Inverting the production pipeline. The latter is fixed by capturing a lot more than just photons. Actually, there are a lot of techniques that will help. We're getting off into the weeds. Let's reconvene in ten years and see what happened to the movie business. I'm just glad we're finally debating about a subject I like rather than Apple for once.
        scarface74 5y ago
        How is it a quadratic time expenditure? You’ve been able to edit video like you would text for a decade. An M1 Mac Mini handles 4K video well. A higher end M1 Mac Pro
        echelon 5y ago
        Mix some optical two shots, OTS, closeups, and cutaways and tell me how long it takes. A virtual camera would do this automatically and let you adjust pacing, placement, and more all with knobs.

PDAs existed before smart phones. There's an inflection point, and it's happening now. GPU-powered applications are going to eat Hollywood, music production, literally every form of entertainment. Everything a person watches or listens to. Kids will be making their own Star Wars films from their bedrooms. Every creative industry will be upended. I don't like the term "metaverse", but there are a number of spatial computing trends that are undeniably evolving at a rapid clip. Volumetrics, photogrammetry, 3D SLAM warehousing. Pose correction, relighting -- photography, telepresence, video games -- everything is going to change. And it goes without saying that deep learning is only getting started. GPUs are the next big thing.

scarface74 5y ago
The entire movie business is $42 Billion dollars a year and declining. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_industry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_industry The entire music industry is $23 billion a year and declining https://www.statista.com/statistics/272305/global-revenue-of-the-music-industry/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272305/global-revenue-of... Honestly, you sound like every bad pitch deck from startups. The $x industry is $y billion big. If we only get 10%…
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > The entire movie business is $42 Billion dollars a year and declining. Your own source says $136 billion for the industry, $42.2 billion is just global box office.
  - scarface74 5y ago
    Fair enough. How many of those are going to need any type of special effects?
    - echelon 5y ago
      People are going to stop recording with glass. When the inefficiencies go away, the field will enlarge dramatically. Every kid wants to be a YouTuber. What happens when you give them tools better than Spielberg has and can compress quadratic time manual labor (writing, editing, set dec, etc.) into nothing? That's not a shrinking industry.
      - scarface74 5y ago
        You’ve been able to edit movies easily on personal computers for a decade. Your typical high end phone can already do 4K video.
        echelon 5y ago
        Editing movies is not easy. It's a quadratic time expenditure. High end phones still use glass and light. This requires a lot of setup from the user to get right, despite the advancement in computer vision and enhancement algorithms. The former is fixed by making the edit part of the act of capture. Inverting the production pipeline. The latter is fixed by capturing a lot more than just photons. Actually, there are a lot of techniques that will help. We're getting off into the weeds. Let's reconvene in ten years and see what happened to the movie business. I'm just glad we're finally debating about a subject I like rather than Apple for once.
        scarface74 5y ago
        How is it a quadratic time expenditure? You’ve been able to edit video like you would text for a decade. An M1 Mac Mini handles 4K video well. A higher end M1 Mac Pro
        echelon 5y ago
        Mix some optical two shots, OTS, closeups, and cutaways and tell me how long it takes. A virtual camera would do this automatically and let you adjust pacing, placement, and more all with knobs.