7 ms·

Optimal quitting

98 points by hhs 5y ago

ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
That’s the first cookie notice that I’ve encountered, that will only allow you to “accept.” I’m sure it’s quite common, and I should get out, more…
- inetknght 5y ago
  Or you should use umatrix and disable cookies and javascript.
  - ianai 5y ago
    Or just keep browsing and never interact with the dialog.
    - throwamon 5y ago
      Or use the "I Don't Care About Cookies" extension or uBlock Origin's cookie notice filter list and (almost) never even look at a dialog again.
      - tejtm 5y ago
        Or left-click -> block-element <select> -> create (rule to block element)
        throwanem 5y ago
        Or use reader mode, which renders the content but not the overlay.
        nijave 5y ago
        Or just blindly click through these things and let websites track you like the "good old days"
- ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
  I wasn’t really complaining. I was just under the impression that the GDPR required that these notices have an “opt out” button. Not my area of expertise. In fact, I think the notices aren’t even required, if a sufficient privacy policy is published, and the site is fairly passive.
  - geocar 5y ago
    It's actually not the GDPR, but the EU cookie directive[1], which isn't actually in-force yet so "these notices" are definitely not required yet. If/when it does come into force, the current prevailing opinion[2] is probably the best set of clues as to what actually will be required. [1]: https://gdpr.eu/cookies/ https://gdpr.eu/cookies/ [2]: https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/publications/tmt-news/tmt-news---june-2017/eu---status-of-the-proposed-eprivacy-regulation-tighter-cookie-rules-and-more https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/publications/tmt-news...
ant6n 5y ago
If you have invested a lot of time and effort in an opportunity, that looked really good in the beginning but really bit you in the ass, then it can be incredibly difficult to let go. Especially when there is a mixture of bad luck, unfair treatment and one's own mistakes, it may take a long time to get over it all.
- doctor_eval 5y ago
  You just described my last 2 years. Not quite over it yet!
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
giovannibonetti 5y ago
> All of this is to say that evaluating opportunity costs requires consideration of alternative options that are not explicit components of a decision A bit meta, but that is a good reason to read things on HN. We (or I, at least) get to know lots of interesting things other people are doing and ponder whether we're on the right place or perhaps could be happier doing something else.
- resonious 5y ago
  I feel like this is also the reason I use HN. Admittedly, though, sometimes I feel like it exacerbates my decision paralysis. Whenever I worry about whether or not I'm doing the "best" thing, I'll hit HN. Usually it just results in wasted time, but that one occasional boost just keeps me coming. Intermittent reinforcement at its finest.
ianai 5y ago
I kinda feel the tradeoffs given miss an opportunity. It's probably not a great idea for most people to expend any time going after careers that are essentially lottery-win levels of rarity to truly succeed. i.e. Professional sports players like baseball or golf, as listed here. I would also suggest that being a tenure-track and especially tenured professor qualifies in this list, despite the pay discrepancies. Quote "The more time you sink into the wrong idea, the more you are misspending life’s most precious resource. But if you quit at the right time (and ignore that sunk cost), then you can move on to scale something else—something with a better shot at success." This definitely applies across things more than just peoples careers and business ideas. I would say this applies broadly. Emotions steer people around and they have a root - a main source of their existence within that person. But further, emotions can lead a person astray. Relationships, too, can lead a person astray if the relationship is with a toxic person. All these things (all things) are best moderated.
- mlac 5y ago
  Depends on your decision criteria and metric of “success”. If someone truly loves doing something, and enjoys the process, then why not? If you like being on teams, get a college scholarship and education, and don’t quite make it to the NFL, then quitting early isn’t a great idea. If someone loves getting a PhD, get’s the stipend, enjoys the process, and then doesn’t get tenure… then they’ve at least spent 7-8 years of their life doing something they enjoy. Optimizing for some end goal or binary idea of success isn’t a good move in my view. Enjoying the process is as important as the outcome. Being a pro athlete takes brains, natural athletic ability, dedication to training, and injury avoidance. Only one of those things is in the person’s control.
  - pc86 5y ago
    I think you're talking about two different things. In ianai's example, the goal is a tenure-track professorship. In yours, it's essentially "get a PhD and see what happens." Both are perfectly fine goals, but they are different.
    - 5y ago
chernevik 5y ago
Eh, I think it's a bit much to say "never quit at anything" is some kind of American folk teaching. People have to find what they are good at, and part of growing up is realizing that leading at something in one pool doesn't mean you'll lead at it in a bigger one. Americans wouldn't have managed to do well if they didn't have some recognition of this.
- mlac 5y ago
  I think the difference is “don’t quit when you commit to do something and break your word”. The important thing is to include natural breaks where you can exit gracefully, and only commit to a certain amount of something so that you can try it without “quitting” after a big commitment.
twfarland 5y ago
Insufferable, patronising humble-bragging. This belongs on LinkedIn
- jmeister 5y ago
  John List is a top behavioral economist; the humble-bragging is backed by science, FWIW
pickledcods 5y ago
Timing of the article is impeccable. I've devoted my life work on fractal logic and calculating with structures, spanning 4 disciplines and two dozen discoveries. One of the many opportunities it gives is transforming hash functions, making it possible to calculate the inverse. This week the first production version was unveiled, which should have solved all the problems the prototype encountered. DES was selected as first example. All the components passed successfully. Only... self-modifying recursive structures behave in mysterious ways, and apparently differently than expected. It was a self financed project and I literally bet everything (wife, house, money) on a single horse which didn't win. I started hacking computers with the Commodore PET (1977) and worked with micros, minis and mainframes, spanning from firmware to operating systems/developer tools and 9 years of computer science education. I am turning 59 next week, have no recent job history or network and it feels like I just dropped out of school. Putting Optimal Quitting into practice. I just started: accepting the loss and letting go. It feels weird. Energy levels and sleep have drastically changed. Next step: deciding to return to the rat-race keeping the expertise or quitting everything and walk a different path, after all, this is the last phase of my professional life.
- dataangel 5y ago
  Are you going to publish your research somewhere at least? It sounds interesting!
  - pickledcods 5y ago
    All the fractal related projects have gathered under the github account RockingShip, the main project being Untangle. The other projects give an indication of the direction, most notably the bezier curves. A the moment I have lost the focus to write a nice paper, but there is a large README and lots of in-code and timestamped annotations. https://github.com/RockingShip https://github.com/RockingShip
boh 5y ago
Hyper-rationalization of the fairly typical human trait of weighing different options. Reductionist in his appeal to opportunity cost ("get the cheaper bat son because it's cheaper"). 90% autobiography which barely coincided with the title. Perfect LinkedIn spam material though, can't wait to see how inspired people were by it.

98 points by hhs 5y ago

That’s the first cookie notice that I’ve encountered, that will only allow you to “accept.” I’m sure it’s quite common, and I should get out, more…

inetknght 5y ago
Or you should use umatrix and disable cookies and javascript.
- ianai 5y ago
  Or just keep browsing and never interact with the dialog.
  - throwamon 5y ago
    Or use the "I Don't Care About Cookies" extension or uBlock Origin's cookie notice filter list and (almost) never even look at a dialog again.
    - tejtm 5y ago
      Or left-click -> block-element <select> -> create (rule to block element)
      - throwanem 5y ago
        Or use reader mode, which renders the content but not the overlay.
        nijave 5y ago
        Or just blindly click through these things and let websites track you like the "good old days"
ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
I wasn’t really complaining. I was just under the impression that the GDPR required that these notices have an “opt out” button. Not my area of expertise. In fact, I think the notices aren’t even required, if a sufficient privacy policy is published, and the site is fairly passive.
- geocar 5y ago
  It's actually not the GDPR, but the EU cookie directive[1], which isn't actually in-force yet so "these notices" are definitely not required yet. If/when it does come into force, the current prevailing opinion[2] is probably the best set of clues as to what actually will be required. [1]: https://gdpr.eu/cookies/ https://gdpr.eu/cookies/ [2]: https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/publications/tmt-news/tmt-news---june-2017/eu---status-of-the-proposed-eprivacy-regulation-tighter-cookie-rules-and-more https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/publications/tmt-news...

ant6n 5y ago

If you have invested a lot of time and effort in an opportunity, that looked really good in the beginning but really bit you in the ass, then it can be incredibly difficult to let go. Especially when there is a mixture of bad luck, unfair treatment and one's own mistakes, it may take a long time to get over it all.

doctor_eval 5y ago
You just described my last 2 years. Not quite over it yet!
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

giovannibonetti 5y ago

> All of this is to say that evaluating opportunity costs requires consideration of alternative options that are not explicit components of a decision A bit meta, but that is a good reason to read things on HN. We (or I, at least) get to know lots of interesting things other people are doing and ponder whether we're on the right place or perhaps could be happier doing something else.

resonious 5y ago
I feel like this is also the reason I use HN. Admittedly, though, sometimes I feel like it exacerbates my decision paralysis. Whenever I worry about whether or not I'm doing the "best" thing, I'll hit HN. Usually it just results in wasted time, but that one occasional boost just keeps me coming. Intermittent reinforcement at its finest.

ianai 5y ago

I kinda feel the tradeoffs given miss an opportunity. It's probably not a great idea for most people to expend any time going after careers that are essentially lottery-win levels of rarity to truly succeed. i.e. Professional sports players like baseball or golf, as listed here. I would also suggest that being a tenure-track and especially tenured professor qualifies in this list, despite the pay discrepancies. Quote "The more time you sink into the wrong idea, the more you are misspending life’s most precious resource. But if you quit at the right time (and ignore that sunk cost), then you can move on to scale something else—something with a better shot at success." This definitely applies across things more than just peoples careers and business ideas. I would say this applies broadly. Emotions steer people around and they have a root - a main source of their existence within that person. But further, emotions can lead a person astray. Relationships, too, can lead a person astray if the relationship is with a toxic person. All these things (all things) are best moderated.

mlac 5y ago
Depends on your decision criteria and metric of “success”. If someone truly loves doing something, and enjoys the process, then why not? If you like being on teams, get a college scholarship and education, and don’t quite make it to the NFL, then quitting early isn’t a great idea. If someone loves getting a PhD, get’s the stipend, enjoys the process, and then doesn’t get tenure… then they’ve at least spent 7-8 years of their life doing something they enjoy. Optimizing for some end goal or binary idea of success isn’t a good move in my view. Enjoying the process is as important as the outcome. Being a pro athlete takes brains, natural athletic ability, dedication to training, and injury avoidance. Only one of those things is in the person’s control.
- pc86 5y ago
  I think you're talking about two different things. In ianai's example, the goal is a tenure-track professorship. In yours, it's essentially "get a PhD and see what happens." Both are perfectly fine goals, but they are different.
  - 5y ago

chernevik 5y ago

Eh, I think it's a bit much to say "never quit at anything" is some kind of American folk teaching. People have to find what they are good at, and part of growing up is realizing that leading at something in one pool doesn't mean you'll lead at it in a bigger one. Americans wouldn't have managed to do well if they didn't have some recognition of this.

mlac 5y ago
I think the difference is “don’t quit when you commit to do something and break your word”. The important thing is to include natural breaks where you can exit gracefully, and only commit to a certain amount of something so that you can try it without “quitting” after a big commitment.

twfarland 5y ago

Insufferable, patronising humble-bragging. This belongs on LinkedIn

jmeister 5y ago
John List is a top behavioral economist; the humble-bragging is backed by science, FWIW

pickledcods 5y ago

Timing of the article is impeccable. I've devoted my life work on fractal logic and calculating with structures, spanning 4 disciplines and two dozen discoveries. One of the many opportunities it gives is transforming hash functions, making it possible to calculate the inverse. This week the first production version was unveiled, which should have solved all the problems the prototype encountered. DES was selected as first example. All the components passed successfully. Only... self-modifying recursive structures behave in mysterious ways, and apparently differently than expected. It was a self financed project and I literally bet everything (wife, house, money) on a single horse which didn't win. I started hacking computers with the Commodore PET (1977) and worked with micros, minis and mainframes, spanning from firmware to operating systems/developer tools and 9 years of computer science education. I am turning 59 next week, have no recent job history or network and it feels like I just dropped out of school. Putting Optimal Quitting into practice. I just started: accepting the loss and letting go. It feels weird. Energy levels and sleep have drastically changed. Next step: deciding to return to the rat-race keeping the expertise or quitting everything and walk a different path, after all, this is the last phase of my professional life.

dataangel 5y ago
Are you going to publish your research somewhere at least? It sounds interesting!
- pickledcods 5y ago
  All the fractal related projects have gathered under the github account RockingShip, the main project being Untangle. The other projects give an indication of the direction, most notably the bezier curves. A the moment I have lost the focus to write a nice paper, but there is a large README and lots of in-code and timestamped annotations. https://github.com/RockingShip https://github.com/RockingShip

boh 5y ago

Hyper-rationalization of the fairly typical human trait of weighing different options. Reductionist in his appeal to opportunity cost ("get the cheaper bat son because it's cheaper"). 90% autobiography which barely coincided with the title. Perfect LinkedIn spam material though, can't wait to see how inspired people were by it.