My prediction: Russia makes some quick wins against Ukraine's military, but discover they can't defeat a stubborn, well-armed guerilla resistance. Then things

My prediction: Russia makes some quick wins against Ukraine's military, but discover they can't defeat a stubborn, well-armed guerilla resistance. Then things will get ugly. If we go by Russia's actions against Ukraine in the 20th century, they'll start rounding up civilians and sending them to a life of hard labor in Siberia [1], not much caring if they survive the journey and conditions. Or just shoot all the farmers who know what they're doing and sell all the food, with predictably horrific results [2]. Vladimir Putin will deny any reports of atrocities committed by his military as hysteria and exaggeration, or say that all the bad things happening to civilians are being done by big bad Ukrainians to poor innocent Russian separatists, in his variation on that old favorite theme of school bullies everywhere, "Stop hitting yourself." There will be a lot of hand-wringing and sanctions, but ultimately NATO will decide that if Russia's actions result in the deaths of a few million people, it's unfortunate, but ultimately this isn't an issue over which we would start World War 3 and trigger the deaths of a few billion people. Russia will discover it has a taste for brutal repression and territory annexation (to a greater extent than it currently has). It will turn into Soviet Union 2.0. NATO and every former Soviet state will have common interests in avoiding another Ukraine situation, meaning those states will all rush to join NATO, and NATO will super-fast-track them. Which will make Russia even more alarmed and less rational. Which will get us closer to World War 3 than we've ever been. The sanctions -- driven by a Europe united in fear and disgust of Russia's actions -- will ultimately decouple Russia from Europe economically: Iron Curtain 2.0. China will be perfectly fine with it, as it will allow them to fill the economic vacuum left by the severed European ties, and become Russia's top trading partner. Which will lead to more coordination among Russia and China, and they'll validate and reassure each other that dictatorship, repression, genocide, etc. are perfectly legitimate means of running a country. China will be better able to stand up to the US with Russian trade to fall back on if the US threatens them with sanctions. China will be emboldened to take Taiwan and maybe more, if Russia's invasion of Ukraine is successful in enlarging its borders. From the point of view of the leadership, the prestige from border enlargement is the point of playing the game; the barbarism, deaths and misery are unimportant implementation details. ...Wow, thinking about where this is going is quite depressing. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_punishment#Soviet_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_punishment#Soviet_U... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_famine_of_1932%E2%80%931933 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_famine_of_1932%E2%80%93...