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> do you think this will actually happen? On what scale? One thing certain about wars is that they never go as planned. WW2 being the biggest example. Lets en
by baybal2 5y ago
> do you think this will actually happen? On what scale?
One thing certain about wars is that they never go as planned. WW2 being the biggest example.
Lets entertain ourselves with following scenario:
Russian fighter-bombers wade into Polish airspace running away from Ukrainian airforce, and launches a missile in anger at Polish MiG.
Poland president then instantly calls art. 5. What happens next?
An art.5 invokation in no laughing matter. If the US will render it hollow, NATO falls apart in an instant. It would not be like art.5 invokation by Bush: the circumstances are completely different.
Even before Trump, NATO's fundamentals been squeaky. Allgedly, US has secret arrangements with core NATO countries to renege on honouring art.5 if invoked by Turkey.
If the above is indeed true, then there us no wonder why I felt that EU started entertaining the idea of "EuroCorps" right around that time.
- joebob42 5y agoI have no idea. It kind of reminds me of a Yes Prime Minister sketch where he's not sure if he'd push the button. The impression I get from what I know is that Putin is the sort of person who really could push the button, if he felt it would help him somehow, but I'm not sure to what extent I can trust my sources.
- jopsen 5y ago> Poland president then instantly calls art. 5. What happens next? Yes, it could be bad. But it would take time for NATO to mobilize a substantial force. Things could cool a bit in the meantime. Maybe, we'd see some skirmishes in the air. Maybe NATO would enforce a no-fly zone like it was done in Libya? Probably, it would start a new cold war, where the west increasingly isolate Russia. Ironic, since Russian fear of being surrounded and isolated by NATO is often cited as the Russian motivation. This whole thing is stupid. It'll only make Russia more poor. Which is why I suspect they won't invade.