There is more resistance to the upside, for sure. But the free market sets the long duration interest rate. If core inflation persists at 5%, rates will surely

There is more resistance to the upside, for sure. But the free market sets the long duration interest rate. If core inflation persists at 5%, rates will surely rise to compensate. They are mostly held low right now due to belief that CPI spike is transitory. You're right that once rates rise sufficiently, it creates recession risk, which then puts downward pressure on rates. But we can likely get to 3% on the 10y and 5% mortgages before hitting that ceiling. Keep in mind how sharply rates rose in the 70s. Though at the time debt burdens were not very high, for sure. But persistently high inflation will lead to a similar effect. We are seeing strong signs of a wage price spiral starting to form in the data