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I'm not an economics expert, but I spent some time in that industry and it's like I was on another planet. I think the VC-unfriendliness of defense isn't just a
by ryukoposting 5y ago
I'm not an economics expert, but I spent some time in that industry and it's like I was on another planet. I think the VC-unfriendliness of defense isn't just an industry norm, it's a direct byproduct of the really weird structure of that market. I can't think of another industry where...
1. There are almost as many sellers as there are buyers (if not more sellers than buyers).
2. Virtually all revenue comes from contract-based programs.
3. The IT+personel security needs are so high that you can only outsource substantial work to other players in the same industry, or firms that specialize in working with the industry, so cutting costs by outsourcing doesn't work as well as it does elsewhere.
That very small pool of buyers can kick the can down the road whenever they want, so a huge chunk of money has to go into simply predicting when your company's next payday will happen. When your forecasts are wrong, you have to spend a bunch of time laying off employees who no longer have anything to do. Or it goes the other way, and you have to frantically recruit the best engineers you can find, and shuffle them all through a rigorous (read: expensive) background check process. Oh, and on the topic of background checks- don't forget that you have insane security needs, even by tech industry standards.
All of this makes for an environment that just isn't VC-friendly. Overhead is high, revenue is unpredictable, and the industry is designed that way. No amount of genius management/engineering can change that.
- thereddaikon 5y agoThis is consistent wit my experience. The defense world is very different from the normal market. Defense contractors tend to be very big (Lockmart, Boeing, L3) or very very small and specialized. For example there is a cottage industry around Ft. Campbell that supplies custom gear to Army Special Forces on essentially a walk-in basis. Getting in to either side of the industry isn't exactly easy.
- robertlagrant 5y agoAgree. Defence suppliers, like the ICE in Neuromancer, need to look more and more like their customers, from hiring ex-military staff to being partly physically colocated, before their customers will accept them and give them hints about which ways deals are likely to go, and which are soon to come out for tender.
- ghaff 5y agoYeah. I have a friend who works for an organization which is a subcontractor for a critical aerospace system. They're basically sustained by one or two contracts and just had cutbacks because the two contractors they were allied with weren't selected for a new project.