5 ms·

There won’t be a War in Ukraine because Russia already won

12 points by sirspacey 5y ago

sirspacey 5y ago
The first coherent explanation of the Ukraine / Russian border conflict I’ve seen.
- rini17 5y ago
  When it doesn't say anything about possible deescalation but instead switches topic to iran, then it isn't very coherent. Such a concentration of russian armed forces never happened before. Are you okay with implied forecast that they will in the end do nothing just memes and fud?
  - irthomasthomas 5y ago
    Russia has been conducting this exercise every year for over decade. E.G. 2020: Russian Military Exercises Near Ukraine. 100 to 120 thousand troops. No WW3, no threat of nukes. https://empr.media/news/conflict-zone/russian-military-exercises-near-ukraine-border/ https://empr.media/news/conflict-zone/russian-military-exerc... earlier: 2016 https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-border https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-... 2017 https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2017/09/13/whats-putin-up-to-the-russian-military-buildup-on-europes-border-raises-tension/ https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2017/09/13/whats-putin-up... 2018 https://archive.is/0gqL0 https://archive.is/0gqL0 2019 https://radiolemberg.com/en/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/almost-100-000-russian-troops-poised-for-offensive-against-ukraine https://radiolemberg.com/en/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/almos...
    - rini17 5y ago
      It was never over 100,000 troops before, thanks for corroboration. And it was not accompanied with urgent demands to undo all NATO expansion.
      - irthomasthomas 5y ago
        First link says 100,000 to 120,000
        rini17 5y ago
        It says that was an expectation. Afterwards, the Russian ministry of defense reported 80000 troops actually involved in “Caucasus-2020”. This info was very easy to find.
        irthomasthomas 5y ago
        Thanks. How many troops has the Russian ministry of defense reported this time?
        rini17 5y ago
        Seems they are not done yet.
    - rini17 5y ago
      Also what's the reason Russia must do these exercises always near Ukraine border? They don't have enough place elsewhere?
      - irthomasthomas 5y ago
        It is the only place that is a realistic risk of invasion to Russia.
        rini17 5y ago
        Then why not try to improve relationships with neighbors instead of such maneuvers or outright taking territories? I am from Slovakia and it's well known what money from local Russian embassy is used for. Definitely not for improving international relationships.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
mint2 5y ago
Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine already. Russia will not hesitate to use military force if they feel like it. The post is right that they can pull back and still come out ahead, but wrong to claim that invasion is not something Russia does or might do. Also Russia is the master of disinformation so citing Russia’s claim that they won’t invade undermines credibility of the author. Russia loves to say one thing and do another
- goatsneez 5y ago
  Reading this, I would recommend to listen to the analogy about the "card deck" (in the video in the link) maybe it will help you to put 2 and 2 together in the Russia context, and perhaps motivate you to get real knowledge about world affairs, or at least, familiarize yourself with the principles of nation-state interactions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tixOyiR8B-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tixOyiR8B-8
  - mint2 5y ago
    Going to come correct all your posts now?
    - goatsneez 5y ago
      First, my heart does go to people in Ukraine found themselves in conditions not of their doing or their wishes. At similar place was my heart with Iraqi during shock and awe attack with 2 Tomahawk missiles per minute hitting them first 24 hours, million of people died directly and many more indirectly in that war. Same with Syrian war or Lybian or any other war which leaves disarray and destruction in its wake. Ordinary citizens suffer the most and it is tragic. There is little one can do once the war machine is on (especially if a nuclear power is the culprit). That is without dispute and no additional commentary needed. However, the geopolitical and strategic principles are by extension natural laws and there is a solid theory behind that. There are facts (some of which are not known to us) in which US/EU stance forced/pushed Russian elites to conclusion that they need to assert themselves militarily (that is also not controversial ... this goes back 2 decades). The tug of war among different interest resulted in this situation. Tensions exists and can be converted into destructive force if not handled properly, or perceived to be (again nothing controversial). If Russia elites made decision surely weighing the cost/benefits (strategic as well as tactical) that's that. EU and US interests with Ukraine are also not parallel if one studies the history, and this situation is no different (although not pertinent to discuss). Media is managed by both sides, narratives are prepared for respective populations, there is nothing controversial here. International law is in its infancy and selectively applied, and mostly non-enforceable against a super-power. Moving to today's situation, wars have their life cycle determined by force fields of international state players. Nevertheless, on personal level I would join you in a being opposed to any war, and denouncing aggression on civilian targets regardless of the culprit.
WaxedChewbacca 5y ago

12 points by sirspacey 5y ago

sirspacey 5y ago

The first coherent explanation of the Ukraine / Russian border conflict I’ve seen.

rini17 5y ago
When it doesn't say anything about possible deescalation but instead switches topic to iran, then it isn't very coherent. Such a concentration of russian armed forces never happened before. Are you okay with implied forecast that they will in the end do nothing just memes and fud?
- irthomasthomas 5y ago
  Russia has been conducting this exercise every year for over decade. E.G. 2020: Russian Military Exercises Near Ukraine. 100 to 120 thousand troops. No WW3, no threat of nukes. https://empr.media/news/conflict-zone/russian-military-exercises-near-ukraine-border/ https://empr.media/news/conflict-zone/russian-military-exerc... earlier: 2016 https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-border https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-... 2017 https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2017/09/13/whats-putin-up-to-the-russian-military-buildup-on-europes-border-raises-tension/ https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2017/09/13/whats-putin-up... 2018 https://archive.is/0gqL0 https://archive.is/0gqL0 2019 https://radiolemberg.com/en/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/almost-100-000-russian-troops-poised-for-offensive-against-ukraine https://radiolemberg.com/en/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/almos...
  - rini17 5y ago
    It was never over 100,000 troops before, thanks for corroboration. And it was not accompanied with urgent demands to undo all NATO expansion.
    - irthomasthomas 5y ago
      First link says 100,000 to 120,000
      - rini17 5y ago
        It says that was an expectation. Afterwards, the Russian ministry of defense reported 80000 troops actually involved in “Caucasus-2020”. This info was very easy to find.
        irthomasthomas 5y ago
        Thanks. How many troops has the Russian ministry of defense reported this time?
        rini17 5y ago
        Seems they are not done yet.
  - rini17 5y ago
    Also what's the reason Russia must do these exercises always near Ukraine border? They don't have enough place elsewhere?
    - irthomasthomas 5y ago
      It is the only place that is a realistic risk of invasion to Russia.
      - rini17 5y ago
        Then why not try to improve relationships with neighbors instead of such maneuvers or outright taking territories? I am from Slovakia and it's well known what money from local Russian embassy is used for. Definitely not for improving international relationships.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

mint2 5y ago

Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine already. Russia will not hesitate to use military force if they feel like it. The post is right that they can pull back and still come out ahead, but wrong to claim that invasion is not something Russia does or might do. Also Russia is the master of disinformation so citing Russia’s claim that they won’t invade undermines credibility of the author. Russia loves to say one thing and do another

goatsneez 5y ago
Reading this, I would recommend to listen to the analogy about the "card deck" (in the video in the link) maybe it will help you to put 2 and 2 together in the Russia context, and perhaps motivate you to get real knowledge about world affairs, or at least, familiarize yourself with the principles of nation-state interactions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tixOyiR8B-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tixOyiR8B-8
- mint2 5y ago
  Going to come correct all your posts now?
  - goatsneez 5y ago
    First, my heart does go to people in Ukraine found themselves in conditions not of their doing or their wishes. At similar place was my heart with Iraqi during shock and awe attack with 2 Tomahawk missiles per minute hitting them first 24 hours, million of people died directly and many more indirectly in that war. Same with Syrian war or Lybian or any other war which leaves disarray and destruction in its wake. Ordinary citizens suffer the most and it is tragic. There is little one can do once the war machine is on (especially if a nuclear power is the culprit). That is without dispute and no additional commentary needed. However, the geopolitical and strategic principles are by extension natural laws and there is a solid theory behind that. There are facts (some of which are not known to us) in which US/EU stance forced/pushed Russian elites to conclusion that they need to assert themselves militarily (that is also not controversial ... this goes back 2 decades). The tug of war among different interest resulted in this situation. Tensions exists and can be converted into destructive force if not handled properly, or perceived to be (again nothing controversial). If Russia elites made decision surely weighing the cost/benefits (strategic as well as tactical) that's that. EU and US interests with Ukraine are also not parallel if one studies the history, and this situation is no different (although not pertinent to discuss). Media is managed by both sides, narratives are prepared for respective populations, there is nothing controversial here. International law is in its infancy and selectively applied, and mostly non-enforceable against a super-power. Moving to today's situation, wars have their life cycle determined by force fields of international state players. Nevertheless, on personal level I would join you in a being opposed to any war, and denouncing aggression on civilian targets regardless of the culprit.

WaxedChewbacca 5y ago