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> It will take the space industry a few years to adapt to the new possibilities, yes. There are tons of possibilities; James Web 2 with 10x the diameter, a pr

> It will take the space industry a few years to adapt to the new possibilities, yes. There are tons of possibilities; James Web 2 with 10x the diameter, a probe to catch up with Oumaumau, real asteroid prospecting. Oh and orbital hotels. Does anyone know of any concrete projects?

midasuni 5y ago
It’s cheap, but not cheap enough to be launching concrete!
mattashii 5y ago
There are 4 NASA projects proposed to launch successors to JWST sometime after 2035, doing more foundational (heh) research: Lynx, HabEx, LUVOIR (with variants A and B) and Origins. All still need to get past the initial research phase, and all but Lynx would greatly benefit from a launch vehicle that can cheaply and easily send 10s of tons into L2. Oh, and don't forget the contract from NASA for landing humans on the moon.
etcet 5y ago
SpaceX has a contract to land people on the moon as part of the Artemis program. Last I checked, their plan includes multiple Starships and orbital refueling. Then there's the dearMoon project, where some artists are planned to be sent around the Moon, because.
XorNot 5y ago
Depending on the final cost, and the cost of amenities, SpaceX could probably profitably just launch people on orbital holidays. By some numbers I think you're looking at sort of "trip to Disneyland" pricing in terms of expense. There is currently probably an almost infinite market of sending middle class people into space to experience true microgravity and LEO, and if that's viable then you're already setting up a secondary market of people who would want more (3 days to orbit moon? At say...$30,000 I'd do it). Space tourism gets oversold a lot, but in a scenario where prices are accessible to the middle class and you make a little money...it would be a long time before you'd run out of customers.
- HWR_14 5y ago
  $30,000/person for a vacation is definitely out of budget for the middle class. $30,000 for a family of four is also out of budget. Hell, I'm not even sure Disney is a less than a once-in-a-lifetime (if that) for middle class families.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    Well, the entire middle class isn't flying to the Moon anytime soon. Not even a meaningful fraction thereof. The logistical constraints are enormous. But I guess 10 thousand people out of the 8 billion that currently inhabit the Earth would be willing to spend 30 thousand bucks to visit the Moon. Getting all of them there and back would actually mean quite a lot of effort.
    - HWR_14 5y ago
      Sure, 10,000 people may sign up for that. But that's not relevant. First, in revenue, that's $300MM. A lot of money, but doesn't seem to be a lot of money for the costs of running that number of Starships, let alone the building of them or R&D. Second, if we assume 1% of people want to go into space, the 10,000 people would be out of the richest million people on earth. That is not the middle class. In fact, those million people will have more wealth than the entire world's middle class.
inglor_cz 5y ago
The possibilities are endless, but the supply chains will have to grow in order to utilize them fully, and that will take some time. IDK how many engineers qualified in designing space-resistant hardware are out there, but I am almost certain that many more will be needed. Space conditions are pretty brutal on components.

midasuni 5y ago

It’s cheap, but not cheap enough to be launching concrete!

mattashii 5y ago

There are 4 NASA projects proposed to launch successors to JWST sometime after 2035, doing more foundational (heh) research: Lynx, HabEx, LUVOIR (with variants A and B) and Origins. All still need to get past the initial research phase, and all but Lynx would greatly benefit from a launch vehicle that can cheaply and easily send 10s of tons into L2. Oh, and don't forget the contract from NASA for landing humans on the moon.

etcet 5y ago

SpaceX has a contract to land people on the moon as part of the Artemis program. Last I checked, their plan includes multiple Starships and orbital refueling. Then there's the dearMoon project, where some artists are planned to be sent around the Moon, because.

XorNot 5y ago

Depending on the final cost, and the cost of amenities, SpaceX could probably profitably just launch people on orbital holidays. By some numbers I think you're looking at sort of "trip to Disneyland" pricing in terms of expense. There is currently probably an almost infinite market of sending middle class people into space to experience true microgravity and LEO, and if that's viable then you're already setting up a secondary market of people who would want more (3 days to orbit moon? At say...$30,000 I'd do it). Space tourism gets oversold a lot, but in a scenario where prices are accessible to the middle class and you make a little money...it would be a long time before you'd run out of customers.

HWR_14 5y ago
$30,000/person for a vacation is definitely out of budget for the middle class. $30,000 for a family of four is also out of budget. Hell, I'm not even sure Disney is a less than a once-in-a-lifetime (if that) for middle class families.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  Well, the entire middle class isn't flying to the Moon anytime soon. Not even a meaningful fraction thereof. The logistical constraints are enormous. But I guess 10 thousand people out of the 8 billion that currently inhabit the Earth would be willing to spend 30 thousand bucks to visit the Moon. Getting all of them there and back would actually mean quite a lot of effort.
  - HWR_14 5y ago
    Sure, 10,000 people may sign up for that. But that's not relevant. First, in revenue, that's $300MM. A lot of money, but doesn't seem to be a lot of money for the costs of running that number of Starships, let alone the building of them or R&D. Second, if we assume 1% of people want to go into space, the 10,000 people would be out of the richest million people on earth. That is not the middle class. In fact, those million people will have more wealth than the entire world's middle class.

inglor_cz 5y ago

The possibilities are endless, but the supply chains will have to grow in order to utilize them fully, and that will take some time. IDK how many engineers qualified in designing space-resistant hardware are out there, but I am almost certain that many more will be needed. Space conditions are pretty brutal on components.