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And you know what? Just like with my hobbyist friend, I thought the spreadsheet they made were a valuable contribution! I thought it was BETTER than just guessi
by oehpr 5y ago
And you know what? Just like with my hobbyist friend, I thought the spreadsheet they made were a valuable contribution! I thought it was BETTER than just guessing. Heck I know it was because so many mods in starsector bring in unintentionally broken equipment and make the game easy. Using their spreadsheet on those mods showed clear heuristics that indicated what in practice seemed to be true.
But my hobbyist friend lacked what I think is important here. The humility to see that the piles of multiplication for the handwavey guesses that they are. Caplan's spreadsheets, to me, made his argument more persuasive. But still not that persuasive. My priors already have education being a net benefit as highly probable, and I'll update, but not much.
This seems rational to me.
- whatshisface 5y ago>My priors already have education being a net benefit as highly probable, and I'll update, but not much. How'd you get those priors?
- oehpr 5y agoI guess just a life of listening to people, like economists, who were in more knowledgable positions than I, repeatedly saying it over and over again. I'm in no personal position to otherwise say boo.
- whatshisface 5y agoBrian's schtick boils down to pointing out that sometimes, economists say things over and over again just because they, themselves, have heard them said over and over again - with the added trick (making it much more valuable) of proposing something better-researched than what they keep repeating. I guess that's my point, that this may be one of those. It'd be usual for him if it was.