5 ms·

Invading Ukraine may never have been Putin’s aim, threat alone could meet goals

Comevius 5y ago
I hope this will not age like milk since Putin is currently still building up troops near Ukraine. I think Putin hoped that NATO countries are fractured, but we managed to unite at the first sign of danger. He is making NATO stronger than ever. He can still kill thousands of Ukrainian people, continue to hold the world at nuclear gunpoint and keep clogging the internet with disinformation, but it's the Russian people who end up worst for it. And that's a shame, they deserve much better than Putin and his criminal, incompetent, illiterate, superstitious oligarchs.
- macilacilove 5y ago
  NATO did not do anything substantial nor does it have any obligation to do something. There was one (always the same) NATO country claiming that the ivasion is definitely going to happen and they were wrong.
  - Comevius 5y ago
    Russia is in control whether or when they attack. The United States was not wrong disclosing their intel. Most of the Russian military is at the border, so the threat of invasion is present. Ukraine is surrounded by more than 150,000 troops. I hope it's a bluff, but it's sure an expensive and aggressive one.
    - macilacilove 5y ago
      Russia claimed it was a military drill. Also Russian military active personnel is 1,014,000, so most of it was not at the border. Also, no one really gave a convincing reason why Russia would benefit from invading Ukraine now. Does US leadership have an infinite reserve of credibility so that no matter how many times they are wrong or don't have a convincing case in the first place, they are to be trusted?
      - Comevius 5y ago
        The Russian military is literally in an attack position along of hundreds of kilometers of the border in Russia, Belarus and the Black Sea. Russia deployed critical combat capabilities, including ballistic-missile systems, electronic-warfare platforms, munitions, field hospitals. Around 70% of their military capability is there. Russia evacuated their embassy in Kyiv. This is not American hearsay, the entire world is looking at this. The satellite images clearly show the military buildup. The exercices are used as a cover to deploy additional capabilities, but they don't cover much.
LinuxBender 5y ago
I have no idea what their goals or tactics are. That is all still just speculation in my armchair commander opinion. One small detail I did notice when they were pulling back was that when they loaded up the 12 tanks onto the train I could hear the final drives grinding in at least 3 of those tanks. It appears to me the drills they ran were a little too hard on the tanks and those are being sent off for repair suggesting to me the repairs required are more extensive than what can be performed in the field. I could be entirely wrong. See if you can find the videos of them loading up the tanks that have audio and crank it up.
xyzzy21 5y ago
Of course it wasn't/isn't. Biden needs a distraction from his horrible poll numbers or he won't complete his first term. Even nuclear war is deemed "acceptable losses" to fix that!
- Comevius 5y ago
  70% of the Russian military is at the Ukrainian border. Russia started a war 8 years ago that already killed around 10000 soldiers and 3000 civilians. They annexed Crimea 8 years ago. I don't think that Biden's poll numbers has anything to do with this conflict.
yrgulation 5y ago
“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; […]” - likely the higher echelons on both sides are aware of it. Events in East Europe have already influenced the history and lives of billions of people, and basically whats happening there will have long lasting effects on asia, africa, the middle east and south america. I only hope it wont get bumpy again as during the cold war era.
bigodbiel 5y ago
Couldn’t agree more with the author, which in my opinion is shared among all major specialists of the region. Minsk II is the only diplomatic solution. Sadly, as the article states, it’d be political suicide to any Ukrainian leader who implemented it. For Kiev, Minsk II is their Versailles Treaty, humiliation signed during extreme duress, fuel for ultra-nationalists. As for the latest escalation Washington is now calling on Moscow’s bluff to invade, with loudspeakers, lest it seems even more weak after its Afghan fiasco. That Ukraine is just a pawn among these players, is just a sad consequence of geopolitics.
- macilacilove 5y ago
  Moscow never said it is planning to invade. They are holding military drills near the border from time to time since at least 2014. All this fearmongering is coming from US leadership, who incidentally are the only ones who would benefit from such conflict. It is very difficult to see them as herous in this situation.

I hope this will not age like milk since Putin is currently still building up troops near Ukraine. I think Putin hoped that NATO countries are fractured, but we managed to unite at the first sign of danger. He is making NATO stronger than ever. He can still kill thousands of Ukrainian people, continue to hold the world at nuclear gunpoint and keep clogging the internet with disinformation, but it's the Russian people who end up worst for it. And that's a shame, they deserve much better than Putin and his criminal, incompetent, illiterate, superstitious oligarchs.

macilacilove 5y ago
NATO did not do anything substantial nor does it have any obligation to do something. There was one (always the same) NATO country claiming that the ivasion is definitely going to happen and they were wrong.
- Comevius 5y ago
  Russia is in control whether or when they attack. The United States was not wrong disclosing their intel. Most of the Russian military is at the border, so the threat of invasion is present. Ukraine is surrounded by more than 150,000 troops. I hope it's a bluff, but it's sure an expensive and aggressive one.
  - macilacilove 5y ago
    Russia claimed it was a military drill. Also Russian military active personnel is 1,014,000, so most of it was not at the border. Also, no one really gave a convincing reason why Russia would benefit from invading Ukraine now. Does US leadership have an infinite reserve of credibility so that no matter how many times they are wrong or don't have a convincing case in the first place, they are to be trusted?
    - Comevius 5y ago
      The Russian military is literally in an attack position along of hundreds of kilometers of the border in Russia, Belarus and the Black Sea. Russia deployed critical combat capabilities, including ballistic-missile systems, electronic-warfare platforms, munitions, field hospitals. Around 70% of their military capability is there. Russia evacuated their embassy in Kyiv. This is not American hearsay, the entire world is looking at this. The satellite images clearly show the military buildup. The exercices are used as a cover to deploy additional capabilities, but they don't cover much.

LinuxBender 5y ago

I have no idea what their goals or tactics are. That is all still just speculation in my armchair commander opinion. One small detail I did notice when they were pulling back was that when they loaded up the 12 tanks onto the train I could hear the final drives grinding in at least 3 of those tanks. It appears to me the drills they ran were a little too hard on the tanks and those are being sent off for repair suggesting to me the repairs required are more extensive than what can be performed in the field. I could be entirely wrong. See if you can find the videos of them loading up the tanks that have audio and crank it up.

xyzzy21 5y ago

Of course it wasn't/isn't. Biden needs a distraction from his horrible poll numbers or he won't complete his first term. Even nuclear war is deemed "acceptable losses" to fix that!

Comevius 5y ago
70% of the Russian military is at the Ukrainian border. Russia started a war 8 years ago that already killed around 10000 soldiers and 3000 civilians. They annexed Crimea 8 years ago. I don't think that Biden's poll numbers has anything to do with this conflict.

yrgulation 5y ago

“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; […]” - likely the higher echelons on both sides are aware of it. Events in East Europe have already influenced the history and lives of billions of people, and basically whats happening there will have long lasting effects on asia, africa, the middle east and south america. I only hope it wont get bumpy again as during the cold war era.

bigodbiel 5y ago

Couldn’t agree more with the author, which in my opinion is shared among all major specialists of the region. Minsk II is the only diplomatic solution. Sadly, as the article states, it’d be political suicide to any Ukrainian leader who implemented it. For Kiev, Minsk II is their Versailles Treaty, humiliation signed during extreme duress, fuel for ultra-nationalists. As for the latest escalation Washington is now calling on Moscow’s bluff to invade, with loudspeakers, lest it seems even more weak after its Afghan fiasco. That Ukraine is just a pawn among these players, is just a sad consequence of geopolitics.

macilacilove 5y ago
Moscow never said it is planning to invade. They are holding military drills near the border from time to time since at least 2014. All this fearmongering is coming from US leadership, who incidentally are the only ones who would benefit from such conflict. It is very difficult to see them as herous in this situation.