I agree. Although the space industry does have various ways of measuring the cost uncertainty, including the cost covariance in a complex system. (A good book o

I agree. Although the space industry does have various ways of measuring the cost uncertainty, including the cost covariance in a complex system. (A good book on this is Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis) >A lot of these questions will only be answered with time and experience. I guess that's a bit of what I was poking at. In my mind, there's still a lot of uncertainty with the cost claims, but I see so many people talking about how it's going to bring launch costs down X% and they seem to say it with relative certainty. I have faith that SpaceX will make great strides in this, but at the moment it seems to be a big unknown, at least in terms of magnitude. My biggest worry is that every misstep will layer additional quality oversight that will drive up cost. An example being the strut failure from a few years back that was related to a supplier material issue. As a remedy, SpaceX now does additional supplier quality control checks. I can imagine a few decades of similar issues being fixed may drive their processes to be more costly.