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Intel has a clear strategy of becoming a big player in the semiconductor industry in the next decade. I honestly think it will work. Many people have observed t

by spupe 5y ago

Intel has a clear strategy of becoming a big player in the semiconductor industry in the next decade. I honestly think it will work. Many people have observed that it is a cash-intensive industry with tiny margins, but once these huge investments have been made and there are only two or three companies that can dominate the market for five to ten years, you can extract huge value before any competitor catches up.

the-dude 5y ago
This comment could have been written 50 years ago.
- yvdriess 5y ago
  Compare the number of players with leading edge fabs then and now though.
  - kken 5y ago
    There were no players without fabs back then.
  - cogman10 5y ago
    Yup, the major change has been the capital to get new fabs off the ground has become unimaginable. TSMC is practically the only game in town for chip manufactures ATM, everyone else that will fab 3rd party designs is way behind. GlobalFoundries state of the art, for example, is a 12nm process. TSMC sits at 5nm, about 4 generations ahead.
    - duped 5y ago
      There are trillions of dollars in capital floating around looking for a better place to park it than treasuries. Major infrastructural projects like semi fabs should be a no brainer - the risk is not that high due to evergrowing demand and the trust that governments won't let an Intel or TSMC fail. Even just look at the VC landscape - there was $621 billion spent in venture capital globally last year, which is one of the worst ways to invest your cash. Point being there's plenty of capital out there for giant projects like building fabs, I just don't think it's sexy enough yet or the financiers haven't taken a deep enough look while governments are expected to make the first moves.
    - vondro 5y ago
      Samsung is not that much behind, recent nVidia GPUs and Qualcomm CPUs are manufactured by Samsung (8N and 4nm, whatever those mean anyway). While density and perf/watt is worse than TSMC, it's THE competitor for TSMC.
- smoldesu 5y ago
  And they still would have been right?
mhh__ 5y ago
> becoming a big player Are you saying they aren't a big player now?
- m_mueller 5y ago
  Gartner puts them at Nr. 2 in 2021 after Samsung Electronics. However it should be noted that for Intel this seems to include total Revenue while for others it seems to be just their pure semiconductor revenue. If Intel were to sell their chip manufacturing as a subsidiary to themselves at market price, that subsidiary probably would be way further down the list.
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  Wouldn't this require them to start making SOCs for mobile phones?
  - throwaway4good 5y ago
    In other words producing for chip designers such as Apple, Qualcomm, or Samsung.
    - ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
      US-based TSMC. They have a good chance of succeeding. They are likely to get a lot of government help. They’ll probably start with older systems, as there’s already a huge need for these, and they have a gazillion existing fabs. It won’t compete with their current lines, and means they don’t need to mothball their legacy fabs.
      - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
        > They are likely to get a lot of government help. Indeed -- the not so subtle subtext of their pitch is "China, eh? Have fun with that.". So a pitch based on the idea that it's strategically important to bring that chip manufacturing "home". Which is why they picked Israel. /s
kken 5y ago
>f becoming a big player in the semiconductor industry in the next decade Did you mean "a big player in the semiconductor _foundry_ industry in the next decade" ? Intel has been the biggest semi player for most years during the last three decades.
mmmBacon 5y ago
Where do you get that the profit margins are tiny? TSMC has a net profit margin of 38%; that’s higher than Google (27%).
Shadonototra 5y ago
They don't have a strategy, they react to their downfall and are rushing to find a solution They are lucky the pandemic happened, it gave them the opportunity to take a step back and realize how screwed they are

by spupe 5y ago

the-dude 5y ago

This comment could have been written 50 years ago.

yvdriess 5y ago
Compare the number of players with leading edge fabs then and now though.
- kken 5y ago
  There were no players without fabs back then.
- cogman10 5y ago
  Yup, the major change has been the capital to get new fabs off the ground has become unimaginable. TSMC is practically the only game in town for chip manufactures ATM, everyone else that will fab 3rd party designs is way behind. GlobalFoundries state of the art, for example, is a 12nm process. TSMC sits at 5nm, about 4 generations ahead.
  - duped 5y ago
    There are trillions of dollars in capital floating around looking for a better place to park it than treasuries. Major infrastructural projects like semi fabs should be a no brainer - the risk is not that high due to evergrowing demand and the trust that governments won't let an Intel or TSMC fail. Even just look at the VC landscape - there was $621 billion spent in venture capital globally last year, which is one of the worst ways to invest your cash. Point being there's plenty of capital out there for giant projects like building fabs, I just don't think it's sexy enough yet or the financiers haven't taken a deep enough look while governments are expected to make the first moves.
  - vondro 5y ago
    Samsung is not that much behind, recent nVidia GPUs and Qualcomm CPUs are manufactured by Samsung (8N and 4nm, whatever those mean anyway). While density and perf/watt is worse than TSMC, it's THE competitor for TSMC.
smoldesu 5y ago
And they still would have been right?

mhh__ 5y ago

> becoming a big player Are you saying they aren't a big player now?

m_mueller 5y ago
Gartner puts them at Nr. 2 in 2021 after Samsung Electronics. However it should be noted that for Intel this seems to include total Revenue while for others it seems to be just their pure semiconductor revenue. If Intel were to sell their chip manufacturing as a subsidiary to themselves at market price, that subsidiary probably would be way further down the list.
throwaway4good 5y ago
Wouldn't this require them to start making SOCs for mobile phones?
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  In other words producing for chip designers such as Apple, Qualcomm, or Samsung.
  - ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
    US-based TSMC. They have a good chance of succeeding. They are likely to get a lot of government help. They’ll probably start with older systems, as there’s already a huge need for these, and they have a gazillion existing fabs. It won’t compete with their current lines, and means they don’t need to mothball their legacy fabs.
    - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
      > They are likely to get a lot of government help. Indeed -- the not so subtle subtext of their pitch is "China, eh? Have fun with that.". So a pitch based on the idea that it's strategically important to bring that chip manufacturing "home". Which is why they picked Israel. /s

kken 5y ago

>f becoming a big player in the semiconductor industry in the next decade Did you mean "a big player in the semiconductor _foundry_ industry in the next decade" ? Intel has been the biggest semi player for most years during the last three decades.

mmmBacon 5y ago

Where do you get that the profit margins are tiny? TSMC has a net profit margin of 38%; that’s higher than Google (27%).

Shadonototra 5y ago

They don't have a strategy, they react to their downfall and are rushing to find a solution They are lucky the pandemic happened, it gave them the opportunity to take a step back and realize how screwed they are