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Personally I liked these two videos on the current macro economic scenario that the Fed is currently facing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka_tLlJt-NU https:/

Personally I liked these two videos on the current macro economic scenario that the Fed is currently facing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka_tLlJt-NU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka_tLlJt-NU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpdSR5AdgwI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpdSR5AdgwI Strongly recommend everyone seeing this comment watches these, as I found the information very enlightening as someone who heavily invests and is not too well versed in economics.

giantg2 5y ago
Can you give us an executive summary for why the debt would prevent rate increases? I have a bit of economics background, but generally try to stay away from YouTube investment videos with titles including stuff like "Red Alert".
- youniverse 5y ago
  Agreed it may be off putting but he is an experienced financial investment banker and former CTO just playing the youtube game. His argument is that basically the Fed is going down a rough path right now and they don't have a lot of good options due to the massive debt. Raising interest rates just 1% adds 300B to their payments. Where is that money going to come from? Options he lays out: 1) Higher taxes (bad idea for a host of reasons) 2) Cut from other budgets to pay it (Military, Medicare, etc) 3) Go back to printing more QE basically creating a cycle of printing money forever as interest rates go up over the next few years. This will sink the value of the dollar. Also he read Ray Dalio's new book where he talks about long term debt cycles (ones that span ~70+ years) where governments basically need to restructure their debt because it has gone out of control. Nobody is old enough to go through stuff like this so he says most people are unaware of this possible macro scenario. This is Ray Dalio's opinion though and he has been wrong before. But if this comes to pass it will _crash_ the market and drop around 5% of GDP. Great financial crisis was 2.5%. The Fed has some important decisions to make and if they mess up real badly the US might just get a devalued currency, get less foreign and bond investment and eventually (this is extreme) be replaced as the reserve currency. So we will see how things go over the next 2-10 years. Again I would recommend watching the videos as he lays it out in more detail.

giantg2 5y ago

Can you give us an executive summary for why the debt would prevent rate increases? I have a bit of economics background, but generally try to stay away from YouTube investment videos with titles including stuff like "Red Alert".

youniverse 5y ago
Agreed it may be off putting but he is an experienced financial investment banker and former CTO just playing the youtube game. His argument is that basically the Fed is going down a rough path right now and they don't have a lot of good options due to the massive debt. Raising interest rates just 1% adds 300B to their payments. Where is that money going to come from? Options he lays out: 1) Higher taxes (bad idea for a host of reasons) 2) Cut from other budgets to pay it (Military, Medicare, etc) 3) Go back to printing more QE basically creating a cycle of printing money forever as interest rates go up over the next few years. This will sink the value of the dollar. Also he read Ray Dalio's new book where he talks about long term debt cycles (ones that span ~70+ years) where governments basically need to restructure their debt because it has gone out of control. Nobody is old enough to go through stuff like this so he says most people are unaware of this possible macro scenario. This is Ray Dalio's opinion though and he has been wrong before. But if this comes to pass it will _crash_ the market and drop around 5% of GDP. Great financial crisis was 2.5%. The Fed has some important decisions to make and if they mess up real badly the US might just get a devalued currency, get less foreign and bond investment and eventually (this is extreme) be replaced as the reserve currency. So we will see how things go over the next 2-10 years. Again I would recommend watching the videos as he lays it out in more detail.