Seems unlikely to me that starship will get to orbit this year. They haven't received FAA approval to test launch to orbit from Boca Chia. SpaceX's tests usuall

Seems unlikely to me that starship will get to orbit this year. They haven't received FAA approval to test launch to orbit from Boca Chia. SpaceX's tests usually fail multiple times before they succeed, so the clock hasn't even started. The interval at which they can run tests logistically is at minimum a few months. As well, we also know that the raptor engine production line is running much too slow. [1] Starship required 34 raptors for every test, so you can do simple math at how quickly they will be able to do tests based on how quickly they can build the engines. There's never been an engine production line which could build much more than one engine per week. It also seems likely that SpaceX will have to fundraise at least once at their current burn before Starship gets to orbit, so that could be a down round. [1] https://spaceexplored.com/2021/11/29/spacex-raptor-crisis/ https://spaceexplored.com/2021/11/29/spacex-raptor-crisis/