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Their exact methodology is not spelled out, but it sounds like this is a particularly nasty arena for the prosecutor's fallacy to once again rear its head. Poli
by leephillips 5y ago
Their exact methodology is not spelled out, but it sounds like this is a particularly nasty arena for the prosecutor's fallacy to once again rear its head. Police should never be searching through DNA databases “looking for a match”. Most of the matches you find this way will be innocent people.
- mdavis6890 5y agoCan I give you 100 upvotes? I can’t find the button for that. It’s one thing to start with a suspect and check DNA. It’s another thing entirely to start by matching DNA to whoever and then start investing those people. People often forget how horribly damaging an investigation is for the subject, even when it finally concludes with “oops, never mind.”
- leephillips 5y agoYeah, you exactly get it. I wish more people did. It’s simple probability theory, but most never learn that. This is especially tragic in the US, where an arrest can mean months or years in jail awaiting trial, and jail often means rape or maiming by other prisoners or guards. So the penalty for reporting your rape to the police is increased probability of being raped and abused by the state in the future.