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For those of you playing along at home, the phrase: “At this point, I am highly confident we will get to orbit this year,” is a special thing that Musk says w

For those of you playing along at home, the phrase: “At this point, I am highly confident we will get to orbit this year,” is a special thing that Musk says when development is taking longer than expected. Historically, everything that Musk is highly confident about either never happens or happens years later than promised. Don't hold your breath.

hoseja 5y ago
That's just Musk time. The rest of us not currently shorting TSLA can be highly confident they will get to orbit in 2-3 years.
- qsdf38100 5y ago
  AKA bullshit time
  - darawk 5y ago
    Bullshit time that still ends in delivery of world changing products, pretty consistently. He can bullshit about timelines all he wants as long as he's delivering at this level eventually, as far as i'm concerned.
  - anonporridge 5y ago
    "Reach for the stars, and if you miss, you might still land on the moon" time. Don't confuse big, hairy, audacious goals, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/big-hairy-audacious-goal-bhag.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/big-hairy-audacious-goa..., that push a group to push further than would have with "realistic" goals with bullshit.
deleted 5y ago
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thesausageking 5y ago
That's been the history on self-driving cars: 2015: "We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." 2016: "I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year." 2018: "I think probably by end of next year (2019) self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person." 2019: "We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that." 2019: "I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year." 2020: "I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year."

hoseja 5y ago

That's just Musk time. The rest of us not currently shorting TSLA can be highly confident they will get to orbit in 2-3 years.

qsdf38100 5y ago
AKA bullshit time
- darawk 5y ago
  Bullshit time that still ends in delivery of world changing products, pretty consistently. He can bullshit about timelines all he wants as long as he's delivering at this level eventually, as far as i'm concerned.
- anonporridge 5y ago
  "Reach for the stars, and if you miss, you might still land on the moon" time. Don't confuse big, hairy, audacious goals, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/big-hairy-audacious-goal-bhag.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/big-hairy-audacious-goa..., that push a group to push further than would have with "realistic" goals with bullshit.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

thesausageking 5y ago

That's been the history on self-driving cars: 2015: "We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." 2016: "I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year." 2018: "I think probably by end of next year (2019) self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person." 2019: "We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that." 2019: "I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year." 2020: "I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year."