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>None of this is a surprise to anyone who has been watching. I could characterize it in a number of ways, but there is nobody left to persuade. Not even a plan

>None of this is a surprise to anyone who has been watching. I could characterize it in a number of ways, but there is nobody left to persuade. Not even a planck length of surprise to anyone. >Given some obvious inevatabilities that flow downstream of this, what's the smart thing to do as an individual? What a great question. Staying neutral? Join the protests on some side? At least try to understand what's happening? >If you are aligned to the official narrative, the incentives are to double down to make sure nobody suspects you of disloyalty if it prevails. I think when folks like Bill Maher call Trudeau out as sounding like Hitler... that was before he declared this last night. Even those on the left are seeing this as way too far. Something the convoy seems to have done is show how detached from reality Trudeau has become. He used to be a guy who would stand up in town halls and talk to anyone. >f you are on the side of revolt, the official narrative is so increasingly divorced from reality as a means to signal it doesn't have to care about it - because this is how it says it is powerful - that it is impossible to sustain the dissonance to find any common ground or agreement in principle. The mandates are falling around the world. Trudeau introduced new restrictions in January sparking this protest. It's clearly the wrong direction. The 'covid conspiracy theory' that this isn't about health. There hasnt been an emergency in quite some time. Trudeau's hand got laid down last night. This is no longer a conspiracy theory. >I just don't see reconciliation as a result of this emergencies act process. The Ottawa police have been unable to end the protests because they are legal peaceful protests. This emergencies act explicitly says you cant remove their internationally recognized human rights. Trudeau will find out shortly that the protesters are still not going anywhere, but worse force his hand. I will be quite surprised if the military doesnt get involved. >My bets would be on a ratcheting up of controls over internet services, hyper aggressive financial services and tax enforcement, over the top surveillance exampples as threats, a miasma of staged and real "random" violence, escalating hit jobs and cancellations of the reasonable and principled, an official pivot to "fighting hate/terror" as a permanent emergency, etc. No crystal ball needed to make these predictions. That's going to happen for sure. >The only question to me is whether a new class of plausible leaders emerges to replace the terrible ones responsible for this nonsense, or decades of low level conflict with a radicalized populace vs. a state that has more international support than national legitimacy. The only out is removing internal passport controls and mandates. The alterative is clear. Such interesting times. I have such respect for Liberal MP Joel Lightbound. A week ago he came out and said exactly this. Talk to the protesters, give them a reasonable roadmap to no restrictions. Stop the inflammatory attacks. Nobody is saying you must drop the mandates tomorrow. But the reason Trudeau has gone this far is because there is no roadmap to no restrictions. Restrictions are staying. The protesters forced hishand and revealed this reality.

cmonagle 5y ago
I don't think your assessment reflects the current attitudes in Canada. With such a polarizing topic, it's easy to fall into a bubble. I think this is true (and fairly normal) for any political in-group--we tend to overestimate our public support. In this case, though, it's really just not there. > Even those on the left are seeing this as way too far. Generally, people are [sympathetic](https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy-support-ottawa-canada/ https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy...) to the occupiers, but I wouldn't read too much into that--I'm in the large minority that have "sympathy" for them, but I want them gone as soon as possible. Canadians say their opinion is unchanged, or that they're more likely to support vaccine mandates because of the occupations and blockades. A small majority want mass arrests and criminal charges, and significant majority want it to be ended by force. [source](https://angusreid.org/trudeau-convoy-trucker-protest-vaccine-mandates-covid-19/ https://angusreid.org/trudeau-convoy-trucker-protest-vaccine...). Indeed, rather than this being "way too far," for most Canadians, it's not far enough. > The Ottawa police have been unable to end the protests because they are legal peaceful protests. The occupation is in violation of several court injunctions, which makes it illegal. As for peaceful? I'd disagree--there's been too many incidents of violence for me to characterize it that way, but frankly that's secondary when you're in systematic violation of court orders (without even considering all of the civil violations like parking, noise, public defecation, etc.) > the reason Trudeau has gone this far is because there is no roadmap to no restrictions. Restrictions are staying. The protesters forced hishand and revealed this reality. Every single province had a pre-existing deconfinement plan. They've been accelerated as the hospital situation continues to improve.
- sleepingadmin 5y ago
  >I don't think your assessment reflects the current attitudes in Canada. With such a polarizing topic, it's easy to fall into a bubble. I think this is true (and fairly normal) for any political in-group--we tend to overestimate our public support. I love reading /r/ontario and /r/canada. Obviously cant comment like I do here without getting banned from those subreddits. So their bubble literally sees the truckers as a military occupation that needs to military to violently remove them. That's certainly not a misrepresentation of the general consensus there. The threads about people killing and driving into protestors got applauds. So certainly very polarized. >Generally, people are [sympathetic](https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy...) to the occupiers, but I wouldn't read too much into that--I'm in the large minority that have "sympathy" for them, but I want them gone as soon as possible. People generally support what they represent. They look at the global trend of everyone dropping restrictions and they want the same. However, how many Canadians believe these protesters are also racists, sexists, and white supremacists? The smearing is going to have an effect. >Indeed, rather than this being "way too far," for most Canadians, it's not far enough. Yes, it seems very polar. Trudeau's in the tanks polls wise because the people who believe the smears think this is a military occupation that needs violence to solve. >The occupation is in violation of several court injunctions, which makes it illegal. Like what? That's the thing about peaceful assembly charter right. There's virtually no case law. Which means you can't really injunct against it. You can go after them for bylaw violations that dont involve people. You can ticket a car that is parked illegally. An illegally parked car is not something that makes it a military occupation or even for that matter illegal. >As for peaceful? I'd disagree--there's been too many incidents of violence for me to characterize it that way, but frankly that's secondary when you're in systematic violation of court orders (without even considering all of the civil violations like parking, noise, public defecation, etc.) That's the problem with fundamental human rights. I have a right to peacefully protest. Someone else showing up and being violent doesn't remove my right. That's what fuels counter protesters to be violent. City bylaws also have absolutely no bering here. >Every single province had a pre-existing deconfinement plan. They've been accelerated as the hospital situation continues to improve. Which will certainly appease many of the protesters to go home. Not all will go home. This legislation that Trudeau just engaged is specifically designed not to stop peaceful protesters. This means Trudeau has to pull the trigger on military eventually.

cmonagle 5y ago

I don't think your assessment reflects the current attitudes in Canada. With such a polarizing topic, it's easy to fall into a bubble. I think this is true (and fairly normal) for any political in-group--we tend to overestimate our public support. In this case, though, it's really just not there. > Even those on the left are seeing this as way too far. Generally, people are [sympathetic](https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy-support-ottawa-canada/ https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy...) to the occupiers, but I wouldn't read too much into that--I'm in the large minority that have "sympathy" for them, but I want them gone as soon as possible. Canadians say their opinion is unchanged, or that they're more likely to support vaccine mandates because of the occupations and blockades. A small majority want mass arrests and criminal charges, and significant majority want it to be ended by force. [source](https://angusreid.org/trudeau-convoy-trucker-protest-vaccine-mandates-covid-19/ https://angusreid.org/trudeau-convoy-trucker-protest-vaccine...). Indeed, rather than this being "way too far," for most Canadians, it's not far enough. > The Ottawa police have been unable to end the protests because they are legal peaceful protests. The occupation is in violation of several court injunctions, which makes it illegal. As for peaceful? I'd disagree--there's been too many incidents of violence for me to characterize it that way, but frankly that's secondary when you're in systematic violation of court orders (without even considering all of the civil violations like parking, noise, public defecation, etc.) > the reason Trudeau has gone this far is because there is no roadmap to no restrictions. Restrictions are staying. The protesters forced hishand and revealed this reality. Every single province had a pre-existing deconfinement plan. They've been accelerated as the hospital situation continues to improve.

sleepingadmin 5y ago
>I don't think your assessment reflects the current attitudes in Canada. With such a polarizing topic, it's easy to fall into a bubble. I think this is true (and fairly normal) for any political in-group--we tend to overestimate our public support. I love reading /r/ontario and /r/canada. Obviously cant comment like I do here without getting banned from those subreddits. So their bubble literally sees the truckers as a military occupation that needs to military to violently remove them. That's certainly not a misrepresentation of the general consensus there. The threads about people killing and driving into protestors got applauds. So certainly very polarized. >Generally, people are [sympathetic](https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy https://globalnews.ca/news/8610727/ipsos-poll-trucker-convoy...) to the occupiers, but I wouldn't read too much into that--I'm in the large minority that have "sympathy" for them, but I want them gone as soon as possible. People generally support what they represent. They look at the global trend of everyone dropping restrictions and they want the same. However, how many Canadians believe these protesters are also racists, sexists, and white supremacists? The smearing is going to have an effect. >Indeed, rather than this being "way too far," for most Canadians, it's not far enough. Yes, it seems very polar. Trudeau's in the tanks polls wise because the people who believe the smears think this is a military occupation that needs violence to solve. >The occupation is in violation of several court injunctions, which makes it illegal. Like what? That's the thing about peaceful assembly charter right. There's virtually no case law. Which means you can't really injunct against it. You can go after them for bylaw violations that dont involve people. You can ticket a car that is parked illegally. An illegally parked car is not something that makes it a military occupation or even for that matter illegal. >As for peaceful? I'd disagree--there's been too many incidents of violence for me to characterize it that way, but frankly that's secondary when you're in systematic violation of court orders (without even considering all of the civil violations like parking, noise, public defecation, etc.) That's the problem with fundamental human rights. I have a right to peacefully protest. Someone else showing up and being violent doesn't remove my right. That's what fuels counter protesters to be violent. City bylaws also have absolutely no bering here. >Every single province had a pre-existing deconfinement plan. They've been accelerated as the hospital situation continues to improve. Which will certainly appease many of the protesters to go home. Not all will go home. This legislation that Trudeau just engaged is specifically designed not to stop peaceful protesters. This means Trudeau has to pull the trigger on military eventually.