4 ms·
> Most thefts (robbery, etc) are not reported now because people know police don't care Underreporting has always been an issue with crime data [1], but the ch
by jljljl 5y ago
> Most thefts (robbery, etc) are not reported now because people know police don't care
Underreporting has always been an issue with crime data [1], but the change in the Larceny rate doesn't seem like it's caused by an increase in underreporting. The change in reported Larceny from 2020 seems fairly correlated with COVID restrictions.
Here is the monthly Y/Y change in Larceny Theft Reported incidents for SF, for each month in 2020 vs. 2019:
Jan: +15.7%
Feb: +5.4%
March: -28.7% (SF Shelter In Place)
April: -47.1%
May: -45.6%
June: -48.9%
July: -51.8%
August: -50.1%
September: -54.5%
October: -54.9%
November: -39.2%
December: -46.7%
Larceny did go up in 2021, especially at the end of the year when COVID restrictions started to lift, but is still down ~20% relative to 2019. Other crimes went up in 2020, but then decreased or flattened in 2021.
I think you may have a point about Larceny being encountered more, especially with foot traffic + tourism way down in many SF neighborhoods. I'm not sure how exactly to use Open Table reservations as a proxy for that, so it's hard to say whether it's relatively up or relatively down.
[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about...