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Following its first month of public trading, a new Derwent fund based on Twitter reported 1.85 percent return on investment. During this same time period, the S
by hugh3 15y ago
Following its first month of public trading, a new Derwent fund based on Twitter reported 1.85 percent return on investment. During this same time period, the S&P 500 index fell 2.2 percent, "and the average hedge fund made only 0.76 per cent."
An algorithm that outperforms the stock market for one month is not news. If they have an algorithm that can do it consistently over decades I'll be impressed.
Many funds have been trying to mine this sort of data, and presumably we don't hear about it when the results aren't so good, so this is just cherrypicking.
I can train ten chimps to pick stocks, and the best-performing of them over the first month will no doubt outperform the market significantly. But if I try to sell you my stock-picking chimp then beware.
- InclinedPlane 15y agoIndeed, seems like the classic sharpshooter fallacy. Given the variability in the market there will always generally be some random betting strategy that's better than everything else within a short time period.
- gammarator 15y agoHere's an extensive takedown of the paper; it has lots of flaws: http://blog.someben.com/2011/05/sour-grapes-seven-reasons-why-that-twitter-prediction-model-is-cooked/ http://blog.someben.com/2011/05/sour-grapes-seven-reasons-wh...
- rudiger 15y agoDepending on the frequency that trades are placed, there are statistical methods to determine "skill" much sooner than decades.