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> There's not a "guarantee" but this is the well known behavior of the evolution of diseases. There is strong evolutionary pressure to become less deadly and mo

> There's not a "guarantee" but this is the well known behavior of the evolution of diseases. There is strong evolutionary pressure to become less deadly and more infectious. Do you know of any evidence that would support this hypothesis? Especially when talking about evolution over short periods of time (years, not centuries or millennia)? An article in the Guardian published several months ago argued the opposite[0]; and while the Guardian is certainly no authority on scientific matters, and could well have its own narratives to push, their article suggests that this is not a well-known behaviour of pathogens. [0] – https://i.imgur.com/3bQGj04.png https://i.imgur.com/3bQGj04.png

colechristensen 5y ago
The 1918 (Spanish) flu has descendants still circulating. During its peak it killed up to 5% of population (statistics vary, usually numbers land between 1 and 5%, in some places much more). Obviously it is no longer still this deadly. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm With all the covid talk, it is hard to quickly find a good source for the theory and verification of the evolutionary dynamics of diseases I mentioned, but as can be seen with variants (and how Omicron clearly wiped out Delta by overcompeting it) evolution of viruses absolutely does not need thousands or millions of years.
- azangru 5y ago
  > but as can be seen with variants (and how Omicron clearly wiped out Delta by overcompeting it) evolution of viruses absolutely does not need thousands or millions of years. Yes. I included thousands of years to accommodate the co-evolution of both the pathogen and the host, which, obviously, evolves at a much slower rate. And since you mention how omicron wiped out delta, hadn't delta in its turn wiped out alpha, while being (I don't remember, was there a consensus on this?) a more dangerous variant?

colechristensen 5y ago

The 1918 (Spanish) flu has descendants still circulating. During its peak it killed up to 5% of population (statistics vary, usually numbers land between 1 and 5%, in some places much more). Obviously it is no longer still this deadly. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm With all the covid talk, it is hard to quickly find a good source for the theory and verification of the evolutionary dynamics of diseases I mentioned, but as can be seen with variants (and how Omicron clearly wiped out Delta by overcompeting it) evolution of viruses absolutely does not need thousands or millions of years.

azangru 5y ago
> but as can be seen with variants (and how Omicron clearly wiped out Delta by overcompeting it) evolution of viruses absolutely does not need thousands or millions of years. Yes. I included thousands of years to accommodate the co-evolution of both the pathogen and the host, which, obviously, evolves at a much slower rate. And since you mention how omicron wiped out delta, hadn't delta in its turn wiped out alpha, while being (I don't remember, was there a consensus on this?) a more dangerous variant?