5 ms·

Confiscating peoples' assets does not exactly engender you to a lot of political support. You're risking a massive loss in the next elections if you do that, ju

Confiscating peoples' assets does not exactly engender you to a lot of political support. You're risking a massive loss in the next elections if you do that, just like how Democrats in the US are also facing huge electoral pressures on crime and COVID restrictions [1]. [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/us/politics/new-york-mask-mandate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/us/politics/new-york-mask...

tedivm 5y ago
This idea that there's a crime wave seems to be pushed here and on reddit by month old accounts with no real proof. The reality is that crime is down in most places. Lets look at San Francisco. I'm going to get my stats right from the San Francisco Police Department. Homocide - Down 20% Rape - Down 23.8% Robbery - Down 20.7% Assault - Down 8.8% Human Trafficking - Down 83.3% Burglary - Down 45.4% Motor Vehicle Theft - Down 6% Arson - Down 7.9% Larceny Theft - Up 12.8% Year over year the only type of crime that is up is Larceny Theft, and most of that is shoplifting. Everything else is down, and some of it by significant margins. There is no real basis for this "crime wave" people keep talking about. That pressure is really just right wing propaganda. https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim... Quick Edit: When I published this the stats were only current to February 6th, but they were updated after I posted with data up to the 13th. So my numbers above are going to be slightly off, but you can confirm them by changing the timeframe to end on the 6th.
- slibhb 5y ago
  > There is no real basis for this "crime wave" people keep talking about. That pressure is really just right wing propaganda. Some "right wing propaganda" from the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/briefing/crime-surge-homicides-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/briefing/crime-surge-homi... And WaPo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/01/21/homicide-rates-have-soared-nationwide-mayors-see-chance-turnaround-2022 https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/01/21/homicide-ra... And The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/28/san-francisco-bay-area-gun-violence-murders-2020 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/28/san-francisc...
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    In the same vein as the GP comment, one of my favorites is The Guardian "Everyone needs to relax, it's just a rise in murders, not a rise in crime". Whew! https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rate-homcides-explained https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rat...
  - paganel 5y ago
    Also The Economist: https://archive.fo/78rGz https://archive.fo/78rGz Later edit: This chart [1] taken from said article maybe will clarify some of the ongoing discussions. [1] https://archive.fo/78rGz/270f56724e7a40242b6639537e4183aea3b97dcc.webp https://archive.fo/78rGz/270f56724e7a40242b6639537e4183aea3b...
- buscoquadnary 5y ago
  It's funny you say that because many people I know said they've simply stopped recording or responding to crime because everyone knows there will be no consequences for arresting somebody and the risk isn't worth arresting people in most cases. The prediction was that next people would use the evidence that there are fewer crimes being reported as proof that nothing is wrong. This does seem very much like what we are seeing here.
  - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
    Sorry, so you're supposing that there's a bunch of dead bodies lying around that no one is counting as murder?
    - BitwiseFool 5y ago
      Why fixate on murders? That is only a small aspect of what "the crime rate" really captures.
      - joshuamorton 5y ago
        That's true, but if you don't focus on murders, 2020 was one of the lowest violent crime years on record looking at SF, CA as a whole, or the entire US, so 2021 having an increase in crime is nothing more than reversion to the mean.
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - beerandt 5y ago
        Because it's least susceptible to reporting bias, and being an extreme, also offers a base point for interpolation, to independently estimate numbers of lessor crimes, especially violent ones.
    - leereeves 5y ago
      The dead bodies lying around are being counted, and the count went up. According to the SFPD link above, homicides in SF rose from 48 to 56 over the entire year 2021 vs 2020.
- zeusk 5y ago
  Motor vehicle theft is up, not down (even in your own data). Infact from my own experience in Seattle area and the auto enthusiast groups I'm in, we've definitely seen an uptick in car prowling, smashed windows, cat thefts and outright vehicle/trailer thefts.
  - tedivm 5y ago
    When I published this the stats were only current to February 6th, but they were updated after I posted with data up to the 13th. So my numbers above are going to be slightly off, but you can confirm them by changing the timeframe to end on the 6th. Motor Vehicle Theft is now up by 0.3%.
    - zeusk 5y ago
      Even for 2/6, the site says MVT was flat (0% change). But from what I have seen, policing has also taken a back seat during the pandemic especially for non-violent, non-urgent crimes.
- e4e78a06 5y ago
  Most thefts (robbery, etc) are not reported now because people know police don't care. You also need to adjust your numbers for decreased activity (people stopped going out during COVID!). Restaurant reservations are down by 50% or more in SF [1] even despite reopening. If you use restaurant reservations as a proxy for foot traffic in general, all your metrics are strongly up when you adjust for foot traffic. The idea that larceny (petty) theft doesn't matter is also a big reason why you think there's no crime wave. Petty theft is the crime most often encountered by everyday citizens. People don't like having their property stolen. I don't know why you refuse to acknowledge that. [1]: https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
  - plutoblatodanto 5y ago
    - e4e78a06 5y ago
      > Why? Crime is measured per capita, but you say it should be divided by 10,000 steps or something? Why would petty theft and robbery be divided by population? My risk of getting my bike stolen is 0 or my phone taken at gunpoint if I stay inside my home. It is non-zero if I go out. And it increases the longer I stay out. So measuring crime per person-hour of going out makes intuitive sense. Restaurant reservations is merely an imperfect proxy for this. > Straw man. Everyone knows that all crime creates anguish for the victim and is to be avoided. If a person compares the effects of the pandemic to the opportunity of types of crimes, it doesn't mean they love the idea of larceny. Come on. Better faith in arguing please Except the causation for these crimes is lax prosecution caused by 1) DAs who are politically motivated and 2) Prop 47 / similar regulations in other states. Unemployment is at record lows and there's a record worker shortage driving up wages. You cannot possibly claim the "effects of the pandemic" are causing increased property crime when unemployment has been so low for so long. > Better faith in arguing please Ironic, coming from a 15 minute old account whose only comment is this response.
      - plutoblatodanto 5y ago
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- encryptluks2 5y ago
  https://www.koin.com/is-portland-over/looking-at-the-data-portland-crime-during-the-pandemic/ https://www.koin.com/is-portland-over/looking-at-the-data-po... There definitely has been a surge of crime after the pandemic.
- throwawaythekey 5y ago
  Forgive me for being an ignorant foreigner... I see clips of train robberies in LA like this https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/14/train-theft-los-angeles-package-theft.cnn https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/14/train-the... And then I have to ask myself how is that possible in modern society? Train robberies seem shocking enough that they HAVE to be indicative of a broader crime wave. Is there something about the US context that I am missing?
  - fineIllregister 5y ago
    >Union Pacific laid off an unspecified number of employees across the railroad system. Including members of its railroad-only police force. Despite record profits in the billions in the last quarter of 2021. >According to the source, the number of patrolling officers has been cut from 50 to 60 agents to eight, which the worker thinks has led to an increase in train robberies. It's possible because Union Pacific thinks they can get taxpayers to pay for their security, and they can funnel more profits to their shareholders. https://www.lataco.com/union-pacific-theft-police-laid-off/ https://www.lataco.com/union-pacific-theft-police-laid-off/
zozbot234 5y ago
> You're risking a massive loss in the next elections if you do that You think most Canadians support the illegal blockade? Really? Evidence please.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- danuker 5y ago
  I believe there are more appropriate sanctions than freezing one's bank account.

tedivm 5y ago

This idea that there's a crime wave seems to be pushed here and on reddit by month old accounts with no real proof. The reality is that crime is down in most places. Lets look at San Francisco. I'm going to get my stats right from the San Francisco Police Department. Homocide - Down 20% Rape - Down 23.8% Robbery - Down 20.7% Assault - Down 8.8% Human Trafficking - Down 83.3% Burglary - Down 45.4% Motor Vehicle Theft - Down 6% Arson - Down 7.9% Larceny Theft - Up 12.8% Year over year the only type of crime that is up is Larceny Theft, and most of that is shoplifting. Everything else is down, and some of it by significant margins. There is no real basis for this "crime wave" people keep talking about. That pressure is really just right wing propaganda. https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim... Quick Edit: When I published this the stats were only current to February 6th, but they were updated after I posted with data up to the 13th. So my numbers above are going to be slightly off, but you can confirm them by changing the timeframe to end on the 6th.

slibhb 5y ago
> There is no real basis for this "crime wave" people keep talking about. That pressure is really just right wing propaganda. Some "right wing propaganda" from the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/briefing/crime-surge-homicides-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/briefing/crime-surge-homi... And WaPo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/01/21/homicide-rates-have-soared-nationwide-mayors-see-chance-turnaround-2022 https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/01/21/homicide-ra... And The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/28/san-francisco-bay-area-gun-violence-murders-2020 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/28/san-francisc...
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  In the same vein as the GP comment, one of my favorites is The Guardian "Everyone needs to relax, it's just a rise in murders, not a rise in crime". Whew! https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rate-homcides-explained https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rat...
- paganel 5y ago
  Also The Economist: https://archive.fo/78rGz https://archive.fo/78rGz Later edit: This chart [1] taken from said article maybe will clarify some of the ongoing discussions. [1] https://archive.fo/78rGz/270f56724e7a40242b6639537e4183aea3b97dcc.webp https://archive.fo/78rGz/270f56724e7a40242b6639537e4183aea3b...
buscoquadnary 5y ago
It's funny you say that because many people I know said they've simply stopped recording or responding to crime because everyone knows there will be no consequences for arresting somebody and the risk isn't worth arresting people in most cases. The prediction was that next people would use the evidence that there are fewer crimes being reported as proof that nothing is wrong. This does seem very much like what we are seeing here.
- SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
  Sorry, so you're supposing that there's a bunch of dead bodies lying around that no one is counting as murder?
  - BitwiseFool 5y ago
    Why fixate on murders? That is only a small aspect of what "the crime rate" really captures.
    - joshuamorton 5y ago
      That's true, but if you don't focus on murders, 2020 was one of the lowest violent crime years on record looking at SF, CA as a whole, or the entire US, so 2021 having an increase in crime is nothing more than reversion to the mean.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - beerandt 5y ago
      Because it's least susceptible to reporting bias, and being an extreme, also offers a base point for interpolation, to independently estimate numbers of lessor crimes, especially violent ones.
  - leereeves 5y ago
    The dead bodies lying around are being counted, and the count went up. According to the SFPD link above, homicides in SF rose from 48 to 56 over the entire year 2021 vs 2020.
zeusk 5y ago
Motor vehicle theft is up, not down (even in your own data). Infact from my own experience in Seattle area and the auto enthusiast groups I'm in, we've definitely seen an uptick in car prowling, smashed windows, cat thefts and outright vehicle/trailer thefts.
- tedivm 5y ago
  When I published this the stats were only current to February 6th, but they were updated after I posted with data up to the 13th. So my numbers above are going to be slightly off, but you can confirm them by changing the timeframe to end on the 6th. Motor Vehicle Theft is now up by 0.3%.
  - zeusk 5y ago
    Even for 2/6, the site says MVT was flat (0% change). But from what I have seen, policing has also taken a back seat during the pandemic especially for non-violent, non-urgent crimes.
e4e78a06 5y ago
Most thefts (robbery, etc) are not reported now because people know police don't care. You also need to adjust your numbers for decreased activity (people stopped going out during COVID!). Restaurant reservations are down by 50% or more in SF [1] even despite reopening. If you use restaurant reservations as a proxy for foot traffic in general, all your metrics are strongly up when you adjust for foot traffic. The idea that larceny (petty) theft doesn't matter is also a big reason why you think there's no crime wave. Petty theft is the crime most often encountered by everyday citizens. People don't like having their property stolen. I don't know why you refuse to acknowledge that. [1]: https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
- plutoblatodanto 5y ago
  - e4e78a06 5y ago
    > Why? Crime is measured per capita, but you say it should be divided by 10,000 steps or something? Why would petty theft and robbery be divided by population? My risk of getting my bike stolen is 0 or my phone taken at gunpoint if I stay inside my home. It is non-zero if I go out. And it increases the longer I stay out. So measuring crime per person-hour of going out makes intuitive sense. Restaurant reservations is merely an imperfect proxy for this. > Straw man. Everyone knows that all crime creates anguish for the victim and is to be avoided. If a person compares the effects of the pandemic to the opportunity of types of crimes, it doesn't mean they love the idea of larceny. Come on. Better faith in arguing please Except the causation for these crimes is lax prosecution caused by 1) DAs who are politically motivated and 2) Prop 47 / similar regulations in other states. Unemployment is at record lows and there's a record worker shortage driving up wages. You cannot possibly claim the "effects of the pandemic" are causing increased property crime when unemployment has been so low for so long. > Better faith in arguing please Ironic, coming from a 15 minute old account whose only comment is this response.
    - plutoblatodanto 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
encryptluks2 5y ago
https://www.koin.com/is-portland-over/looking-at-the-data-portland-crime-during-the-pandemic/ https://www.koin.com/is-portland-over/looking-at-the-data-po... There definitely has been a surge of crime after the pandemic.
throwawaythekey 5y ago
Forgive me for being an ignorant foreigner... I see clips of train robberies in LA like this https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/14/train-theft-los-angeles-package-theft.cnn https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/14/train-the... And then I have to ask myself how is that possible in modern society? Train robberies seem shocking enough that they HAVE to be indicative of a broader crime wave. Is there something about the US context that I am missing?
- fineIllregister 5y ago
  >Union Pacific laid off an unspecified number of employees across the railroad system. Including members of its railroad-only police force. Despite record profits in the billions in the last quarter of 2021. >According to the source, the number of patrolling officers has been cut from 50 to 60 agents to eight, which the worker thinks has led to an increase in train robberies. It's possible because Union Pacific thinks they can get taxpayers to pay for their security, and they can funnel more profits to their shareholders. https://www.lataco.com/union-pacific-theft-police-laid-off/ https://www.lataco.com/union-pacific-theft-police-laid-off/

zozbot234 5y ago

> You're risking a massive loss in the next elections if you do that You think most Canadians support the illegal blockade? Really? Evidence please.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
danuker 5y ago
I believe there are more appropriate sanctions than freezing one's bank account.