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Russia has been conducting this exercise every year for the past decade. E.G. 2020: Russian Military Exercises Near Ukraine. 100 to 120 thousand troops. No WW3

Russia has been conducting this exercise every year for the past decade. E.G. 2020: Russian Military Exercises Near Ukraine. 100 to 120 thousand troops. No WW3, no threat of nukes. https://empr.media/news/conflict-zone/russian-military-exercises-near-ukraine-border/ https://empr.media/news/conflict-zone/russian-military-exerc... Edit: I looked up some of the others 2016 https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-border https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-... 2017 https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2017/09/13/whats-putin-up-to-the-russian-military-buildup-on-europes-border-raises-tension/ https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2017/09/13/whats-putin-up... 2018 https://archive.is/0gqL0 https://archive.is/0gqL0 2019 https://radiolemberg.com/en/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/almost-100-000-russian-troops-poised-for-offensive-against-ukraine https://radiolemberg.com/en/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/almos... So, this action from Russia is completely normal, and does not usually trigger nuclear war.

parkingrift 5y ago
If Russia does this every year then there is nothing to be concerned about. The US media isn't going to push the US into a preemptive strike. ...but it is not at all normal for the US to evacuate the embassy in Ukraine.
- caeril 5y ago
  > The US media isn't going to push the US into a preemptive strike. Then you know nothing about the history of the US media.
  - cassianoleal 5y ago
    I recommend the Blowback podcast. [0] It really puts the role of the media in starting, or at least helping setting the stage and muster public support for wars, into perspective. [0] https://blowback.show/ https://blowback.show/
  - parkingrift 5y ago
    Oh come now. We’re not talking about things that have happened. We’re talking about provoking world war 3. No matter what you think of the US media, they aren’t capable of provoking the US into starting a world war.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
      No matter? Uhm. Well. What about thinking of the media as the public-relations branch/chearleaders of "them/Deep-State/Whatever-Complex", drumming for support of the feeble sheeples, which can only say *Baa, baa, baa!" to anything that comes down the line, because they have been indoctrinated with shocks that there is no alternative to learned helplessness?
      - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
        hrmpf: cheerleaders...
- cassianoleal 5y ago
  OTOH, the Brazilian Ambassador in Ukraine says the situation there is "quiet and normal". [0] He says there's no reason for alarm or for making plans of fleeing the country. [0] https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2022/02/13/embaixador-brasileiro-na-ucrania-diz-que-situacao-e-tranquila-e-normal-no-pais.ghtml https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2022/02/13/embaixador-bra...
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > OTOH, the Brazilian Ambassador in Ukraine says the situation there is "quiet and normal". Somehow, I don't think Brazil has exactly top of the line technical or human intelligence on either side of the conflict, nor are they particularly likely to have a good feed from anyone who does, so even if we trust them, aside from telling us that an invasion hasn't started yet, I’m not sure what we’re supposed to take from that.
    - cassianoleal 5y ago
      Brazil was not too long ago the 5th economy in the world. It's the largest military in Latin America. It's in good diplomatic terms with pretty much all countries in the globe. The ambassador lives in Ukraine and is definitely much more aware of the real situation than any one of us getting fed Fox News, CNN, the BBC or The Guardian from our couches. Brazilian intelligence/spy services are perhaps not at the same level as the US's or Russia's but they're far from useless.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > Brazil was not too long ago the 5th economy in the world When? Sources I can find have it topping out at 6th in 1995, which (aside from not being 5th) is quite a while ago. > It's the largest military in Latin America. And if we were discussing their ability to take Uruguay in a fight, that might be relevant. > It's in good diplomatic terms with pretty much all countries in the globe. Sure, few countries have any significant disputes with Brazil because Brazil isn't exactly deeply involved beyond its immediate region. That's great in a lot of ways for Brazil, but it's not exactly an endorsement of them being likely to be especially well informed of the prospects of war in Ukraine. > The ambassador lives in Ukraine Which would make him a very good source on whether there is active fighting in his immediate vicinity, but beyond that...? > and is definitely much more aware of the real situation than any one of us getting fed Fox News, CNN, the BBC or The Guardian from our couches. He’s probably reading the same communiques from the governments more directly involved and much of the same media coverage based on those communiques as everyone not in one of the involved countries is seeing. > Brazilian intelligence/spy services are perhaps not at the same level as the US's or Russia's but they're far from useless. Probably not, but also probably aren't really historically intensely focussed on the security situation in Eastern Europe.
calyth2018 5y ago
Not to mention when Russia annexed Crimea, in which the expectation was that Crimea was welcoming (or "welcoming", point is they aren't welcoming the Russians with arms of their own), they sent 40k troops, to somewhere with an area of 27000km^2. If you do a dumb-as-a-post scale up of that to Ukraine, purely with troops / area, you'd expect a lot more than 500,000 troops; and unlike Crimea, such an invasion will be met with resistance.
petre 5y ago
Maybe it's better to read what a Russian military analyst is saying? He has accurately predicted the timing of the Russo-Georgian War. https://jamestown.org/program/macron-meets-with-putin-as-russian-warships-move-into-position/ https://jamestown.org/program/macron-meets-with-putin-as-rus...

parkingrift 5y ago

If Russia does this every year then there is nothing to be concerned about. The US media isn't going to push the US into a preemptive strike. ...but it is not at all normal for the US to evacuate the embassy in Ukraine.

caeril 5y ago
> The US media isn't going to push the US into a preemptive strike. Then you know nothing about the history of the US media.
- cassianoleal 5y ago
  I recommend the Blowback podcast. [0] It really puts the role of the media in starting, or at least helping setting the stage and muster public support for wars, into perspective. [0] https://blowback.show/ https://blowback.show/
- parkingrift 5y ago
  Oh come now. We’re not talking about things that have happened. We’re talking about provoking world war 3. No matter what you think of the US media, they aren’t capable of provoking the US into starting a world war.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
    No matter? Uhm. Well. What about thinking of the media as the public-relations branch/chearleaders of "them/Deep-State/Whatever-Complex", drumming for support of the feeble sheeples, which can only say *Baa, baa, baa!" to anything that comes down the line, because they have been indoctrinated with shocks that there is no alternative to learned helplessness?
    - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
      hrmpf: cheerleaders...
cassianoleal 5y ago
OTOH, the Brazilian Ambassador in Ukraine says the situation there is "quiet and normal". [0] He says there's no reason for alarm or for making plans of fleeing the country. [0] https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2022/02/13/embaixador-brasileiro-na-ucrania-diz-que-situacao-e-tranquila-e-normal-no-pais.ghtml https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2022/02/13/embaixador-bra...
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > OTOH, the Brazilian Ambassador in Ukraine says the situation there is "quiet and normal". Somehow, I don't think Brazil has exactly top of the line technical or human intelligence on either side of the conflict, nor are they particularly likely to have a good feed from anyone who does, so even if we trust them, aside from telling us that an invasion hasn't started yet, I’m not sure what we’re supposed to take from that.
  - cassianoleal 5y ago
    Brazil was not too long ago the 5th economy in the world. It's the largest military in Latin America. It's in good diplomatic terms with pretty much all countries in the globe. The ambassador lives in Ukraine and is definitely much more aware of the real situation than any one of us getting fed Fox News, CNN, the BBC or The Guardian from our couches. Brazilian intelligence/spy services are perhaps not at the same level as the US's or Russia's but they're far from useless.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > Brazil was not too long ago the 5th economy in the world When? Sources I can find have it topping out at 6th in 1995, which (aside from not being 5th) is quite a while ago. > It's the largest military in Latin America. And if we were discussing their ability to take Uruguay in a fight, that might be relevant. > It's in good diplomatic terms with pretty much all countries in the globe. Sure, few countries have any significant disputes with Brazil because Brazil isn't exactly deeply involved beyond its immediate region. That's great in a lot of ways for Brazil, but it's not exactly an endorsement of them being likely to be especially well informed of the prospects of war in Ukraine. > The ambassador lives in Ukraine Which would make him a very good source on whether there is active fighting in his immediate vicinity, but beyond that...? > and is definitely much more aware of the real situation than any one of us getting fed Fox News, CNN, the BBC or The Guardian from our couches. He’s probably reading the same communiques from the governments more directly involved and much of the same media coverage based on those communiques as everyone not in one of the involved countries is seeing. > Brazilian intelligence/spy services are perhaps not at the same level as the US's or Russia's but they're far from useless. Probably not, but also probably aren't really historically intensely focussed on the security situation in Eastern Europe.

calyth2018 5y ago

Not to mention when Russia annexed Crimea, in which the expectation was that Crimea was welcoming (or "welcoming", point is they aren't welcoming the Russians with arms of their own), they sent 40k troops, to somewhere with an area of 27000km^2. If you do a dumb-as-a-post scale up of that to Ukraine, purely with troops / area, you'd expect a lot more than 500,000 troops; and unlike Crimea, such an invasion will be met with resistance.

petre 5y ago

Maybe it's better to read what a Russian military analyst is saying? He has accurately predicted the timing of the Russo-Georgian War. https://jamestown.org/program/macron-meets-with-putin-as-russian-warships-move-into-position/ https://jamestown.org/program/macron-meets-with-putin-as-rus...