3 ms·

The NYTimes has also been comparing death statistics with Covid deaths. They've noticed that many places have a higher incidence of deaths, but not a correspon

The NYTimes has also been comparing death statistics with Covid deaths. They've noticed that many places have a higher incidence of deaths, but not a corresponding incidents of Covid cases. (In other words, Covid deaths are getting underreported.) NYTimes site tracking this: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...

Proven 5y ago
lolinder 5y ago
> In other words, Covid deaths are getting underreported. This may be true, but excess deaths aren't necessarily covid deaths. We turned our society upside down for more than a year. Lots of other things might have been affected by that. You need to account for increases in suicides, pedestrian fatalities, untreated medical conditions and many other possible causes before you can confidently show underreporting. (Not that I know that any one of those stats did go up, but I don't know that they didn't either.)
- Izkata 5y ago
  > (Not that I know that any one of those stats did go up, but I don't know that they didn't either.) In 2020, the US had a spike in deaths by: * heart disease * unintentional injuries * Alzheimer's disease * diabetes Roughly 1/3 of the excess deaths that year were not caused by covid: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234#247782549 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234#24... I don't know if we have 2021's numbers yet, but it looks like a lot of people are expecting deaths by cancer to spike in 2021 or 2022.
- kerneloftruth 5y ago
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    It's undeniable that covid has caused hundreds of thousands of excess deaths in the US, and yet we still find people who find a way.
    - jterrys 5y ago
      It's also not unrealistic to assume that a nonzero number of people died because they weren't able to receive specialized treatment or care due to the lockdowns impacting hospital services.
      - danesparza 5y ago
        Surgeries and other appointments stopped briefly. And then resumed. This would be a good guess if the excess deaths followed that same pattern. And yet the excess deaths didn't follow that same pattern.
        lolinder 5y ago
        The full stop on surgeries and appointments isn't the only thing that could impact excess deaths. What about people who don't go in for preventative care? Or missed checkups causing a problem to go unnoticed until it's too late? Or mistakes made by overwhelmed hospital staff working long hours? Just because the hospitals were open doesn't mean people chose to go in, and even if they went in they may not have had the same level of care they would have pre-pandemic.
      - walls 5y ago
        How exactly do lockdowns impact hospital services?
        infamouscow 5y ago
        It was the policy of most health administrators to cancel preventative health appointments used to screen and provide early treatment options for things like cancer.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  Occam's razor suggests the 900k excess deaths are likely caused by the virus with the high mortality rate, not the lockdowns - particularly when economic slowdown is typically correlated with a decrease in all-cause mortality. Given that we have 900k or so excess deaths, and we have identified 700-900k people who have died from covid, seems difficult to say "we can't really know"
  - lolinder 5y ago
    I think some countries are absolutely underreporting (either intentionally or due to poor infrastructure), but in the US in the last 10 months of 2020, the New York Times only finds 68,700 excess deaths (roughly 3% of all deaths) not attributed to COVID. A 3% increase could easily come from marginal increases in other causes.
    - whimsicalism 5y ago
      Absolutely agree - I thought you were making a stronger claim than you were.

Proven 5y ago

lolinder 5y ago

> In other words, Covid deaths are getting underreported. This may be true, but excess deaths aren't necessarily covid deaths. We turned our society upside down for more than a year. Lots of other things might have been affected by that. You need to account for increases in suicides, pedestrian fatalities, untreated medical conditions and many other possible causes before you can confidently show underreporting. (Not that I know that any one of those stats did go up, but I don't know that they didn't either.)

Izkata 5y ago
> (Not that I know that any one of those stats did go up, but I don't know that they didn't either.) In 2020, the US had a spike in deaths by: * heart disease * unintentional injuries * Alzheimer's disease * diabetes Roughly 1/3 of the excess deaths that year were not caused by covid: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234#247782549 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234#24... I don't know if we have 2021's numbers yet, but it looks like a lot of people are expecting deaths by cancer to spike in 2021 or 2022.
kerneloftruth 5y ago
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  It's undeniable that covid has caused hundreds of thousands of excess deaths in the US, and yet we still find people who find a way.
  - jterrys 5y ago
    It's also not unrealistic to assume that a nonzero number of people died because they weren't able to receive specialized treatment or care due to the lockdowns impacting hospital services.
    - danesparza 5y ago
      Surgeries and other appointments stopped briefly. And then resumed. This would be a good guess if the excess deaths followed that same pattern. And yet the excess deaths didn't follow that same pattern.
      - lolinder 5y ago
        The full stop on surgeries and appointments isn't the only thing that could impact excess deaths. What about people who don't go in for preventative care? Or missed checkups causing a problem to go unnoticed until it's too late? Or mistakes made by overwhelmed hospital staff working long hours? Just because the hospitals were open doesn't mean people chose to go in, and even if they went in they may not have had the same level of care they would have pre-pandemic.
    - walls 5y ago
      How exactly do lockdowns impact hospital services?
      - infamouscow 5y ago
        It was the policy of most health administrators to cancel preventative health appointments used to screen and provide early treatment options for things like cancer.
whimsicalism 5y ago
Occam's razor suggests the 900k excess deaths are likely caused by the virus with the high mortality rate, not the lockdowns - particularly when economic slowdown is typically correlated with a decrease in all-cause mortality. Given that we have 900k or so excess deaths, and we have identified 700-900k people who have died from covid, seems difficult to say "we can't really know"
- lolinder 5y ago
  I think some countries are absolutely underreporting (either intentionally or due to poor infrastructure), but in the US in the last 10 months of 2020, the New York Times only finds 68,700 excess deaths (roughly 3% of all deaths) not attributed to COVID. A 3% increase could easily come from marginal increases in other causes.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    Absolutely agree - I thought you were making a stronger claim than you were.