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Some types of the poliovirus are already eradicated! The polio case is exceedingly frustrating as it's been hindered by the Taliban, Boko Haram, and the likes w

Some types of the poliovirus are already eradicated! The polio case is exceedingly frustrating as it's been hindered by the Taliban, Boko Haram, and the likes with their stupid "this is a tool for massacre Muslims!!11" and similar rhetoric. It's not inconceivable Polio would already have need eradicated if it wasn't for that, and COVID didn't help either due to shifting priorities and such. The good news is that the Taliban did a u-turn on this after taking over last year, and now vaccination efforts in Afghanistan are underway again. Small silver lining from the Taliban takeover I guess :-/ At any rate, current hopes for polio eradication seem to be for 2026[1], whereas Guinea worm is 2030. [1]: https://polioeradication.org/gpei-strategy-2022-2026/ https://polioeradication.org/gpei-strategy-2022-2026/

gus_massa 5y ago
The fake vaccination campaign by the CIA in Pakistan didn't help either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Save_the_Children#Expulsion_from_Pakistan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Save_the_Children#Expulsion_fr...
- GauntletWizard 5y ago
  The real vaccination campaign with alternate motives. Nobody who got a shot there wasn't vaccinated. That they also carried out surveillance was regrettable, because it did create a negative narrative, but the vaccines weren't fake.
  - NhanH 5y ago
    “Fake” go with “campaign”, not “vaccine”. The vaccine was real, the campaign was fake: they run a surveillance campaign and incidentally vaccinate a few people, hence “fake vaccination campaign”
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    "Regrettable". Nice. I guess the torture program was regrettable, too. Not regrettable enough to prosecute anyone, though. Or even to allow the UN to prosecute, or to allow anyone indicted (e.g. in Spain) to be extradited. Allowing CIA to corrupt vaccination efforts is better described as a disastrous debacle.
- Beltalowda 5y ago
  Gosh, I didn't know about that. What a short-sighted programme – and all with the very limited purpose to perhaps maybe catch one guy :-/
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
ars 5y ago
No, that's not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is cVDPV2 (i.e. vaccine derived type 2 Polio). Type 2 Polio is extinct in the wild, but the vaccine derived version refuses to stop. The trouble is the only way to stop cVDPV2 is to immunize for it - but that same immunization is what creates cVDPV2 in the first place. Until a better vaccine arrives, it doesn't look like we'll ever eradicate it, Taliban etc aren't changing that. However there might be good news: "March 2021 saw the first use of the modified nOPV2 vaccine in selected countries. This was engineered to allow vaccination against strain 2 poliovirus without the frequent spawning of cVDPV2 seen with the original OPV2. Full rollout was not expected until 2023." If that works, then eradication might succeed.
- Beltalowda 5y ago
  I was under the impression that vaccine derived polio would eventually fizzle out after the entire population becomes vaccinated (i.e. "herd immunity")?
  - ars 5y ago
    That was the idea - but it failed. Type 2 does not exist in the wild, it's all from vaccine derived. It got so bad they stopping giving type 2 vaccine, but then people have no immunity to the vaccine derived version - but if you give the vaccine, then the vaccine causes more cases (of type 2) than it's stopping. There's no solution here - either option makes things worse. So I hope the new version of the vaccine works, because otherwise this will fail. Type 3 appears basically extinct - both in the wild, and vaccine derived. Only type 1 still exists in the wild, and vaccine derived type 2.
    - gus_massa 5y ago
      IIUC the idea is to mix the oral vaccine with attenuated virus with only the types 1 and 3, and the injectable vaccine with inactive virus with the types 1, 2 and 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Schedule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Schedule So you have coverage for the three types. (It's more complicated. For example country without recent cases and good vaccine coverage only use the injectable vaccine.)

gus_massa 5y ago

The fake vaccination campaign by the CIA in Pakistan didn't help either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Save_the_Children#Expulsion_from_Pakistan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Save_the_Children#Expulsion_fr...

GauntletWizard 5y ago
The real vaccination campaign with alternate motives. Nobody who got a shot there wasn't vaccinated. That they also carried out surveillance was regrettable, because it did create a negative narrative, but the vaccines weren't fake.
- NhanH 5y ago
  “Fake” go with “campaign”, not “vaccine”. The vaccine was real, the campaign was fake: they run a surveillance campaign and incidentally vaccinate a few people, hence “fake vaccination campaign”
- ncmncm 5y ago
  "Regrettable". Nice. I guess the torture program was regrettable, too. Not regrettable enough to prosecute anyone, though. Or even to allow the UN to prosecute, or to allow anyone indicted (e.g. in Spain) to be extradited. Allowing CIA to corrupt vaccination efforts is better described as a disastrous debacle.
Beltalowda 5y ago
Gosh, I didn't know about that. What a short-sighted programme – and all with the very limited purpose to perhaps maybe catch one guy :-/
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

ars 5y ago

No, that's not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is cVDPV2 (i.e. vaccine derived type 2 Polio). Type 2 Polio is extinct in the wild, but the vaccine derived version refuses to stop. The trouble is the only way to stop cVDPV2 is to immunize for it - but that same immunization is what creates cVDPV2 in the first place. Until a better vaccine arrives, it doesn't look like we'll ever eradicate it, Taliban etc aren't changing that. However there might be good news: "March 2021 saw the first use of the modified nOPV2 vaccine in selected countries. This was engineered to allow vaccination against strain 2 poliovirus without the frequent spawning of cVDPV2 seen with the original OPV2. Full rollout was not expected until 2023." If that works, then eradication might succeed.

Beltalowda 5y ago
I was under the impression that vaccine derived polio would eventually fizzle out after the entire population becomes vaccinated (i.e. "herd immunity")?
- ars 5y ago
  That was the idea - but it failed. Type 2 does not exist in the wild, it's all from vaccine derived. It got so bad they stopping giving type 2 vaccine, but then people have no immunity to the vaccine derived version - but if you give the vaccine, then the vaccine causes more cases (of type 2) than it's stopping. There's no solution here - either option makes things worse. So I hope the new version of the vaccine works, because otherwise this will fail. Type 3 appears basically extinct - both in the wild, and vaccine derived. Only type 1 still exists in the wild, and vaccine derived type 2.
  - gus_massa 5y ago
    IIUC the idea is to mix the oral vaccine with attenuated virus with only the types 1 and 3, and the injectable vaccine with inactive virus with the types 1, 2 and 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Schedule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Schedule So you have coverage for the three types. (It's more complicated. For example country without recent cases and good vaccine coverage only use the injectable vaccine.)