2 ms·
This is great! Placed a couple of wagers and created a market. Have you read Shockwave Rider? John Brunner envisioned a network that placed odds on everything
by netman21 5y ago
This is great! Placed a couple of wagers and created a market.
Have you read Shockwave Rider? John Brunner envisioned a network that placed odds on everything, just like this.
- akrolsmir 5y agoI hadn't, but thanks for sharing! We've definitely gotten inspiration from other sources such as Robin Hanson's Age of Em and Eliezer Yudkowsky's Three Worlds Collide (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HawFh7RvDM4RyoJ2d/three-worlds-collide-0-8 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HawFh7RvDM4RyoJ2d/three-worl...). It's pretty exciting to be pushing forward ideas that were previously only found in science fiction haha~
- gwern 5y agoNot quite 'just like this'. Brunner wasn't talking about prediction markets, but essentially Delphi method panels (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method) which would provide odds for betting (hence the name 'Delphi pool'), but continually rather than merely being convened for a specific issue. Think of it like Las Vegas bookies: there's no 'market', there's a centralized bookie with its own hired guns & expert bettors setting the odds, which may, at its discretion or financial needs, change those odds based on bets its users make.
- jahooma 5y agoPrediction markets : The Delphi method :: Classical liberalism : Liberalism