3 ms·
If it dropped off the face of the earth today, nobody at all would notice. Well, my Twitter timeline would clean up. But otherwise, nothing would happen. It's a
by arcticbull 5y ago
If it dropped off the face of the earth today, nobody at all would notice. Well, my Twitter timeline would clean up. But otherwise, nothing would happen. It's an issue of scale. If it continue to grow unabated, it's a real risk.
This is sort of frog boiling. It's legal tender in one of the world's poorest countries, where there were already Bitcoin riots. The space has seen investments from the Quebec pension plan, and the Ontario teachers pension plan.
If at each milestone we step back and say, well, it's not a systemic risk today so let's just ignore it - one day we turn around, and it's a systemic risk to the global financial system. Mortgage backed securities weren't a risk until one day they were. Albanian MLMs weren't a risk until one day they were.
Just like Bitcoin's electricity usage. Hal Finney mentioned CO2 risk a decade ago. Now it consumes an entire country of power to do the work of a single Raspberry Pi. Each time the price goes up, so does its waste budget. However at every step along the way, folks continued to downplay. The longer we ignore it the more the cancer metastasizes. Until one day, pop.
Forget where it's at now, assess it based on its incentives and its trajectory. It won't get regulated unless people speak out. The sooner, the better.
- vmception 5y agoOn the financial observations, all of those systemic risks were due to leverage. If there was real leverage intertwined with the parallel financial system, bitcoin and crypto would have to be 50 times larger, 100 trillion market cap full of commercial paper, longer dated bonds, rebundled and collateralized, and then those further traded on leverage.
- arcticbull 5y agoIf you don't think the crypto space is leveraged to the tits and back in an ouroborosian orgy of rehypothecation I've got an NFT representing legal title to the Brooklyn bridge to sell you. But no, leverage isn't what took down the Albanians. It was investing 50% of their GDP in unproductive MLMs.
- vmception 5y agoI think there is a lot of leverage in the crypto space, I don't think there is much contagion to the other financial system, yet.
- arcticbull 5y agoAh, I see, apologies if I misread because I agree with you.