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I see you posting this kind of stuff on crypto threads regularly, and I'm no crypto bro, but I definitely think you're being hyperbolic. For context, the entire

by dvt 5y ago

I see you posting this kind of stuff on crypto threads regularly, and I'm no crypto bro, but I definitely think you're being hyperbolic. For context, the entire market cap of crypto is a third less than $AAPL. The idea that a crypto crash (hell, even if it goes to zero) is going to lead to riots is bonkers. In the next ~10 years, it's probably just going to get mildly regulated and stabilize as a (riskier) investment instrument.

arcticbull 5y ago
If it dropped off the face of the earth today, nobody at all would notice. Well, my Twitter timeline would clean up. But otherwise, nothing would happen. It's an issue of scale. If it continue to grow unabated, it's a real risk. This is sort of frog boiling. It's legal tender in one of the world's poorest countries, where there were already Bitcoin riots. The space has seen investments from the Quebec pension plan, and the Ontario teachers pension plan. If at each milestone we step back and say, well, it's not a systemic risk today so let's just ignore it - one day we turn around, and it's a systemic risk to the global financial system. Mortgage backed securities weren't a risk until one day they were. Albanian MLMs weren't a risk until one day they were. Just like Bitcoin's electricity usage. Hal Finney mentioned CO2 risk a decade ago. Now it consumes an entire country of power to do the work of a single Raspberry Pi. Each time the price goes up, so does its waste budget. However at every step along the way, folks continued to downplay. The longer we ignore it the more the cancer metastasizes. Until one day, pop. Forget where it's at now, assess it based on its incentives and its trajectory. It won't get regulated unless people speak out. The sooner, the better.
- vmception 5y ago
  On the financial observations, all of those systemic risks were due to leverage. If there was real leverage intertwined with the parallel financial system, bitcoin and crypto would have to be 50 times larger, 100 trillion market cap full of commercial paper, longer dated bonds, rebundled and collateralized, and then those further traded on leverage.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    If you don't think the crypto space is leveraged to the tits and back in an ouroborosian orgy of rehypothecation I've got an NFT representing legal title to the Brooklyn bridge to sell you. But no, leverage isn't what took down the Albanians. It was investing 50% of their GDP in unproductive MLMs.
    - vmception 5y ago
      I think there is a lot of leverage in the crypto space, I don't think there is much contagion to the other financial system, yet.
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        Ah, I see, apologies if I misread because I agree with you.
qeternity 5y ago
> For context, the entire market cap of crypto is less than a third of $AAPL. I agree with your comment but maybe you meant to say “a third less”? Crypto is ca. 70% of AAPL mcap.
- dvt 5y ago
  Yep, fixed!
yread 5y ago
There was this research (phoning 1000 people who invest more than 10k with 50k income in the US) that 25% of Americans hold crypto: https://grayscale.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Grayscale-2021-Bitcoin-Investor-Study-1.pdf https://grayscale.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Grayscale-2...
- elkos 5y ago
  That's interesting. I have trouble to believe that's actually the case in the US. There might be a non-normalised sample or some other statistical snafu. I would expect something like that in countries with more unstable currencies or serious economic issues like how Greece was a few years back but on the other hand it's more mainstream right now right?
lariati 5y ago
Not to mention the "market cap" is complete fiction. I think you can notice this best on a new coin. I was looking at chia for whatever stupid idea they had with proof by useless storage. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chia-network/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chia-network/ If you go to the 5 year market cap chart, it goes from 0 to 342 million when offered. That is 342 million dollars out of thin air backed by nothing. Now it is at 248 million but there is no future cash flow that is being valued at 248 million by the market as it was an equity. It is really -94 million but the 248 million is still being summed into that bogus total market cap.

by dvt 5y ago

arcticbull 5y ago

If it dropped off the face of the earth today, nobody at all would notice. Well, my Twitter timeline would clean up. But otherwise, nothing would happen. It's an issue of scale. If it continue to grow unabated, it's a real risk. This is sort of frog boiling. It's legal tender in one of the world's poorest countries, where there were already Bitcoin riots. The space has seen investments from the Quebec pension plan, and the Ontario teachers pension plan. If at each milestone we step back and say, well, it's not a systemic risk today so let's just ignore it - one day we turn around, and it's a systemic risk to the global financial system. Mortgage backed securities weren't a risk until one day they were. Albanian MLMs weren't a risk until one day they were. Just like Bitcoin's electricity usage. Hal Finney mentioned CO2 risk a decade ago. Now it consumes an entire country of power to do the work of a single Raspberry Pi. Each time the price goes up, so does its waste budget. However at every step along the way, folks continued to downplay. The longer we ignore it the more the cancer metastasizes. Until one day, pop. Forget where it's at now, assess it based on its incentives and its trajectory. It won't get regulated unless people speak out. The sooner, the better.

vmception 5y ago
On the financial observations, all of those systemic risks were due to leverage. If there was real leverage intertwined with the parallel financial system, bitcoin and crypto would have to be 50 times larger, 100 trillion market cap full of commercial paper, longer dated bonds, rebundled and collateralized, and then those further traded on leverage.
- arcticbull 5y ago
  If you don't think the crypto space is leveraged to the tits and back in an ouroborosian orgy of rehypothecation I've got an NFT representing legal title to the Brooklyn bridge to sell you. But no, leverage isn't what took down the Albanians. It was investing 50% of their GDP in unproductive MLMs.
  - vmception 5y ago
    I think there is a lot of leverage in the crypto space, I don't think there is much contagion to the other financial system, yet.
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      Ah, I see, apologies if I misread because I agree with you.

qeternity 5y ago

> For context, the entire market cap of crypto is less than a third of $AAPL. I agree with your comment but maybe you meant to say “a third less”? Crypto is ca. 70% of AAPL mcap.

dvt 5y ago
Yep, fixed!

yread 5y ago

There was this research (phoning 1000 people who invest more than 10k with 50k income in the US) that 25% of Americans hold crypto: https://grayscale.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Grayscale-2021-Bitcoin-Investor-Study-1.pdf https://grayscale.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Grayscale-2...

elkos 5y ago
That's interesting. I have trouble to believe that's actually the case in the US. There might be a non-normalised sample or some other statistical snafu. I would expect something like that in countries with more unstable currencies or serious economic issues like how Greece was a few years back but on the other hand it's more mainstream right now right?

lariati 5y ago

Not to mention the "market cap" is complete fiction. I think you can notice this best on a new coin. I was looking at chia for whatever stupid idea they had with proof by useless storage. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chia-network/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chia-network/ If you go to the 5 year market cap chart, it goes from 0 to 342 million when offered. That is 342 million dollars out of thin air backed by nothing. Now it is at 248 million but there is no future cash flow that is being valued at 248 million by the market as it was an equity. It is really -94 million but the 248 million is still being summed into that bogus total market cap.