4 ms·

> What's the point of being in this business? Search depends on having sites to link people to, and those sites primarily use ads for monetization. If Google

by jefftk 5y ago

> What's the point of being in this business? Search depends on having sites to link people to, and those sites primarily use ads for monetization. If Google shut down their display advertising business, web publishers overall would make far less money in the short term, and it's not clear how long recovery would take. Disclosure: I work at Google on display ads, speaking only for myself -- I don't know what the company's strategy is here.

skinkestek 5y ago
Recently I have been using Marginalia a bit. Surprisingly often not only do I find usable results with Marginalia but even better results. A good deal of what Marginalia does different[1] seems to be to strongly prefer pages with less ads and tracking. Sadly for Google and happily for me and others there is an amazing amount of good content that surfaces once you peel away the cookie cutter, maximum ad, maximum tracking web sites. For now we need some of those ad filled pages but if the marked changes I am fairly sure most of them will adapt or be replaced. [1]: besides being a real search engine instead of vector search or whatever it is Google and Bing does that feeds me with several non-matches in every search. Edit, I got a downvote and while I don't care about the exact points I guess it is because someone think I exaggerate wildly, so here is a challenge, try to repeat this search in your favorite mainstream engine and see what results you get: https://search.marginalia.nu/search?query=windows+linux+dual+boot+&profile=yolo&js=default https://search.marginalia.nu/search?query=windows+linux+dual...
dmitriid 5y ago
> Google shut down their display advertising business, web publishers overall would make far less money in the short term, and it's not clear how long recovery would take. I would ask for an independent study to confirm this. On the surface at least this sounds unlikely (to put it mildly).
- jefftk 5y ago
  If you remove a large component of publisher revenue, the total will go down in the short term. That doesn't seem like a very strong claim?
  - dmitriid 5y ago
    > If you remove a large component of publisher revenue 1. If you remove Google Ads it doesn't mean other ad systems disappear 2. Google has been caught red handed preventing other ad platforms from competing. https://www.axios.com/google-facebook-conspired-manipulate-ad-auctions-states-lawsuit-1ef8d50f-1891-4cf3-8399-3487ad66588a.html https://www.axios.com/google-facebook-conspired-manipulate-a... 3. Google was caught overcharging advertisers and pocketing the difference https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabet-and-facebook-ceos-colluded-in-online-ad-sales-scheme-unredacted-antitrust-lawsuit-alleges-11642205787 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabet-and-facebook-ceos... It's quite possible that if Google Ads go away, it will be a net positive for the system.
    - jefftk 5y ago
      > 1. If you remove Google Ads it doesn't mean other ad systems disappear Sure. But in general you should expect that if you remove one system you are going to see short term loss at a minimum. For example, some advertisers will not be set up on other platforms and other platforms will realize they can raise fees now that they have less competition. Eventually you likely end up with a system very similar to the status quo, as new and existing competitors fully build out replacements for what Google runs today, but it takes a while. > 2. Google has been caught red handed preventing other ad platforms from competing. ... 3. Google was caught overcharging advertisers and pocketing the difference It looks to me like both of these are citing the same lawsuit, which is still in progress. I'm not supposed to comment on the details of ongoing litigation, but when we see this lawsuit fully run its course I think both of those articles will be seen to have overstated their claims.
      - dmitriid 5y ago
        > But in general you should expect that if you remove one system you are going to see short term loss at a minimum Yes. As any system/platform change. They are called business expenses. > Eventually you likely end up with a system That provides advertisement, and there are dozens of replacements (there were probably hundreds until Google)
reaperducer 5y ago
I ran a few very successful web sites in the years before and after the advent of Google AdSense. This struck me as a strange thought: If Google shut down their display advertising business, web publishers overall would make far less money in the short term, It was Google that destroyed the online display advertising business with its auctions and race-to-the bottom strategy. Before AdSense, we would negotiate with local advertisers and partner with national advertising networks. Local ads we sold got us $50-$115 CPM. National networks, like TribalFusion, got us $15-$40 CPM, with occasional specialty campaigns that could bring in up to $100 CPM. I remember the days of configuring our network accounts to reject ads that paid less than $25 CPM. Google turned all that into pennies. When you put AdSense on your web site and see that you're only getting 5¢ CPM, you know who to blame: Google. Even the hated "Punch the Monkey" paid two orders of magnitude more than 95% of Google ads today. and it's not clear how long recovery would take. It took three to five years for Google to destroy online advertising. Perhaps it will take the same amount of time for it to recover.
- jefftk 5y ago
  Major publishers still make most of their money through direct deals with advertisers, even publishers that use Google's ad server (Google Ad Manager, formerly DoubleClick for Publishers). Auctions for remaining inventory, or for publishers who are too small to find it worthwhile to negotiate direct deals, seems to me like something that is here to stay, regardless of Google's involvement? (Still speaking only for myself)

by jefftk 5y ago

skinkestek 5y ago

Recently I have been using Marginalia a bit. Surprisingly often not only do I find usable results with Marginalia but even better results. A good deal of what Marginalia does different[1] seems to be to strongly prefer pages with less ads and tracking. Sadly for Google and happily for me and others there is an amazing amount of good content that surfaces once you peel away the cookie cutter, maximum ad, maximum tracking web sites. For now we need some of those ad filled pages but if the marked changes I am fairly sure most of them will adapt or be replaced. [1]: besides being a real search engine instead of vector search or whatever it is Google and Bing does that feeds me with several non-matches in every search. Edit, I got a downvote and while I don't care about the exact points I guess it is because someone think I exaggerate wildly, so here is a challenge, try to repeat this search in your favorite mainstream engine and see what results you get: https://search.marginalia.nu/search?query=windows+linux+dual+boot+&profile=yolo&js=default https://search.marginalia.nu/search?query=windows+linux+dual...

dmitriid 5y ago

> Google shut down their display advertising business, web publishers overall would make far less money in the short term, and it's not clear how long recovery would take. I would ask for an independent study to confirm this. On the surface at least this sounds unlikely (to put it mildly).

jefftk 5y ago
If you remove a large component of publisher revenue, the total will go down in the short term. That doesn't seem like a very strong claim?
- dmitriid 5y ago
  > If you remove a large component of publisher revenue 1. If you remove Google Ads it doesn't mean other ad systems disappear 2. Google has been caught red handed preventing other ad platforms from competing. https://www.axios.com/google-facebook-conspired-manipulate-ad-auctions-states-lawsuit-1ef8d50f-1891-4cf3-8399-3487ad66588a.html https://www.axios.com/google-facebook-conspired-manipulate-a... 3. Google was caught overcharging advertisers and pocketing the difference https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabet-and-facebook-ceos-colluded-in-online-ad-sales-scheme-unredacted-antitrust-lawsuit-alleges-11642205787 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabet-and-facebook-ceos... It's quite possible that if Google Ads go away, it will be a net positive for the system.
  - jefftk 5y ago
    > 1. If you remove Google Ads it doesn't mean other ad systems disappear Sure. But in general you should expect that if you remove one system you are going to see short term loss at a minimum. For example, some advertisers will not be set up on other platforms and other platforms will realize they can raise fees now that they have less competition. Eventually you likely end up with a system very similar to the status quo, as new and existing competitors fully build out replacements for what Google runs today, but it takes a while. > 2. Google has been caught red handed preventing other ad platforms from competing. ... 3. Google was caught overcharging advertisers and pocketing the difference It looks to me like both of these are citing the same lawsuit, which is still in progress. I'm not supposed to comment on the details of ongoing litigation, but when we see this lawsuit fully run its course I think both of those articles will be seen to have overstated their claims.
    - dmitriid 5y ago
      > But in general you should expect that if you remove one system you are going to see short term loss at a minimum Yes. As any system/platform change. They are called business expenses. > Eventually you likely end up with a system That provides advertisement, and there are dozens of replacements (there were probably hundreds until Google)

reaperducer 5y ago

I ran a few very successful web sites in the years before and after the advent of Google AdSense. This struck me as a strange thought: If Google shut down their display advertising business, web publishers overall would make far less money in the short term, It was Google that destroyed the online display advertising business with its auctions and race-to-the bottom strategy. Before AdSense, we would negotiate with local advertisers and partner with national advertising networks. Local ads we sold got us $50-$115 CPM. National networks, like TribalFusion, got us $15-$40 CPM, with occasional specialty campaigns that could bring in up to $100 CPM. I remember the days of configuring our network accounts to reject ads that paid less than $25 CPM. Google turned all that into pennies. When you put AdSense on your web site and see that you're only getting 5¢ CPM, you know who to blame: Google. Even the hated "Punch the Monkey" paid two orders of magnitude more than 95% of Google ads today. and it's not clear how long recovery would take. It took three to five years for Google to destroy online advertising. Perhaps it will take the same amount of time for it to recover.

jefftk 5y ago
Major publishers still make most of their money through direct deals with advertisers, even publishers that use Google's ad server (Google Ad Manager, formerly DoubleClick for Publishers). Auctions for remaining inventory, or for publishers who are too small to find it worthwhile to negotiate direct deals, seems to me like something that is here to stay, regardless of Google's involvement? (Still speaking only for myself)