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Tangentially: > unstable equilibrium point Is anyone looking at economics thru the lenses of chaos theory (complex adaptive systems), control theory, or cyber

Tangentially: > unstable equilibrium point Is anyone looking at economics thru the lenses of chaos theory (complex adaptive systems), control theory, or cybernetics? I've foraged a bit, no joy, but really don't know where to start looking. I only ask because... Anthropologist David Graeber's book Debt: The First 5000 Years muses about the fragility of market based systems. Like maybe capitalism contains the seeds of its own destruction. Hence the recurrence of debt forgiveness, jubilees, and revolutions throughout recorded history. Seen from this angle, it sure does seem like some kind of debt crisis always has a role in social upheaval. With economics simulations (modeling) attaining ever more fidelity, it occurred to me they'll inevitably hit "butterfly effect" type phenomenon. Further, what if Graeber is more than right. What if "capitalism" can never be stable? What if market equilibriums will always collapse? That insight would have huge impact on public policy. Instead of trying to keep things afloat indefinitely, we'd anticipate and plan ahead for the endless series of resets. Proactive instead of reactive. Because it sure does seem (to this noob) like crisis and resets are the norm. I'm not saying that real life is just a weirder instance of Dwarf Fortress. But given how hard it is to design stable and predictable closed world game economies, what hope do we have to do better with human economies?

hackerfromthefu 5y ago
Part of the problem is the crises occur infrequently and humans en masse tend to forget the past, in their emotions and actions if not in theory. Another part of the problem is the governments benefit from inflation and again short term the people in power benefitting from it are unlikely to be the same ones in power when the crises eventuates, ie the problems of money printing are externalities. But your central idea of planning ahead for the crises is actually refreshing and excellent, if it is possible to apply it. On a personal level, anticipating and timing the crises is a form of planning for it, to reduce financial leverage before the crisis and have cash available to buy assets cheap from those that didn't anticipate the crisis.
jbay808 5y ago
> economics thru the lenses of chaos theory, control theory, or cybernetics? I'm looking too. In my mind this is absolutely the way to look at the macroeconomic landscape, and as a control theorist, I don't like what I see, which is a widespread lack of respect for delayed responses and positive feedback loops. I'll evaluate what hope we have for stability once I see the control being executed sensibly.

hackerfromthefu 5y ago

Part of the problem is the crises occur infrequently and humans en masse tend to forget the past, in their emotions and actions if not in theory. Another part of the problem is the governments benefit from inflation and again short term the people in power benefitting from it are unlikely to be the same ones in power when the crises eventuates, ie the problems of money printing are externalities. But your central idea of planning ahead for the crises is actually refreshing and excellent, if it is possible to apply it. On a personal level, anticipating and timing the crises is a form of planning for it, to reduce financial leverage before the crisis and have cash available to buy assets cheap from those that didn't anticipate the crisis.

jbay808 5y ago

> economics thru the lenses of chaos theory, control theory, or cybernetics? I'm looking too. In my mind this is absolutely the way to look at the macroeconomic landscape, and as a control theorist, I don't like what I see, which is a widespread lack of respect for delayed responses and positive feedback loops. I'll evaluate what hope we have for stability once I see the control being executed sensibly.