6 ms·

> The rate of myocarditis is much higher if you get Covid than if you get the vaccine . What are you basing this on? There was a recent UK study (preprint, las

by csee 5y ago

> The rate of myocarditis is much higher if you get Covid than if you get the vaccine . What are you basing this on? There was a recent UK study (preprint, last I checked) of 40 million people that showed that the risk of myocarditis was definitively higher compared to Covid in the Moderna sample and higher (albeit statistically insignificant) in the Pfizer sampler for young men. > So indirectly getting vaccine will lower your risk since of heart disease as everyone will eventually get covid. This is a separate claim about the conditional probability, which I haven't seen data on. The unconditional probability does not inform the conditional probability.

pstrateman 5y ago
Do you have a link to that study?
- dataflow 5y ago
  Probably https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v... but I haven't looked at it. Also while I'm here, here's another article discussing the topic: https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2022/jan/31/joe-rogan-covid-claims-what-does-the-science-actually-say https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2022/jan/31/joe-rogan-co...
- gypsyharlot 5y ago
  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v...
  - consp 5y ago
    You keep quoting this research like it is something special. The EMA has know this for quite some time to be in the 1-10 in 100000 and more prevailant in males aging 12-35. It either goes away by itself or with medication though you are advised to seek medical attention if you feel anything strange. At least where I live no cases are known of death due this in stark contrast to the actual desease.
  - piva00 5y ago
    From the paper, 3rd paragraph from the end in the "Main" section: > "First, we confirm and extend our previous findings in more than 42 million persons that the risk of hospitalization or death from myocarditis following COVID-19 infection is higher than the risk associated with vaccination in the overall population." Quick edit: while I was skimming the paper someone else commented exactly this excerpt, hehe.
    - csee 5y ago
      That statement is inclusive of old people and women. I am talking about young men. The study says what I said above.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
raverbashing 5y ago
Exactly why, after this was found out, young people were vaccinated with Pfizer and not Moderna
- Gareth321 5y ago
  As per the linked study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v...) the risk is still higher for the Pfizer vaccine than with covid.
  - raverbashing 5y ago
    Only % risk is misleading. From the conclusion of the PDF linked: > In summary, the risk of hospital admission or death from myocarditis is greater following COVID-19 infection than following vaccination and remains modest following sequential doses of mRNA vaccine including a third booster dose of BNT162b in the overall population. However, the risk of myocarditis following vaccination is consistently higher in younger males, particularly following a second dose of RNA mRNA-1273 vaccine
    - inciampati 5y ago
      This concurs with what OP is saying, but the statement is in effect misleading. The vaccine induced myocarditis risk is higher in young males. The numbers also indicate this is even higher than the risk from COVID-19 infection in that group. However, in the population in aggregate the vaccine is less likely to cause this side effect than infection.
      - usrusr 5y ago
        My pet hypothesis: people who are into one of the many athletic pastimes, particularly those with a competitive component, will all do exactly one thing when faced with an appointment that comes with an attached "take a rest from exercising afterwards": they will schedule a particularly intensive workout the day before so that those rest days "don't go to waste". (source: I'm one of those and very few in my social circle don't match that pattern) But the risk association might very well be not so much the exercise happening while under immune stress but the processes that happen during recovery doing their thing while under immune stress. Usually immune stress means infection and we don't get to schedule our infections, so this distinction (exercise time vs recovery time) will be very much unexplored. Young males tend to be more into performance-oriented training (competitive, or focused on metrics, or both) than other population groups, and with an actual infection it might even be that the relevant immune stress does not really start before more direct symptoms suggest taking a break. Could be as simple as shifting the "no sports" instruction that comes with the jab a few days backwards.
yaris 5y ago
As I read the text of the study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v...) it directly says: "First, we confirm and extend our previous findings in more than 42 million persons that the risk of hospitalization or death from myocarditis following COVID-19 infection is higher than the risk associated with vaccination in the overall population." Is it another study you have where the risk [] is higher after Moderna/Pfizer than after COVID?
- csee 5y ago
  This same thing comes up in every discussion of this study. That statement isn't talking about the young male cohort. In the body of the study, it says the same thing that I said above.
arisAlexis 5y ago
This has been debunked even by Nassim Taleb, wrong statistics.
- csee 5y ago
  Summarize his argument for us?
  - arisAlexis 5y ago
    you can find his argument (proof actually) on Twitter by googling
    - csee 5y ago
      Well I googled the name of the study alongside his name and nothing came up.

by csee 5y ago

pstrateman 5y ago

Do you have a link to that study?

dataflow 5y ago
Probably https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v... but I haven't looked at it. Also while I'm here, here's another article discussing the topic: https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2022/jan/31/joe-rogan-covid-claims-what-does-the-science-actually-say https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2022/jan/31/joe-rogan-co...
gypsyharlot 5y ago
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v...
- consp 5y ago
  You keep quoting this research like it is something special. The EMA has know this for quite some time to be in the 1-10 in 100000 and more prevailant in males aging 12-35. It either goes away by itself or with medication though you are advised to seek medical attention if you feel anything strange. At least where I live no cases are known of death due this in stark contrast to the actual desease.
- piva00 5y ago
  From the paper, 3rd paragraph from the end in the "Main" section: > "First, we confirm and extend our previous findings in more than 42 million persons that the risk of hospitalization or death from myocarditis following COVID-19 infection is higher than the risk associated with vaccination in the overall population." Quick edit: while I was skimming the paper someone else commented exactly this excerpt, hehe.
  - csee 5y ago
    That statement is inclusive of old people and women. I am talking about young men. The study says what I said above.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

raverbashing 5y ago

Exactly why, after this was found out, young people were vaccinated with Pfizer and not Moderna

Gareth321 5y ago
As per the linked study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v...) the risk is still higher for the Pfizer vaccine than with covid.
- raverbashing 5y ago
  Only % risk is misleading. From the conclusion of the PDF linked: > In summary, the risk of hospital admission or death from myocarditis is greater following COVID-19 infection than following vaccination and remains modest following sequential doses of mRNA vaccine including a third booster dose of BNT162b in the overall population. However, the risk of myocarditis following vaccination is consistently higher in younger males, particularly following a second dose of RNA mRNA-1273 vaccine
  - inciampati 5y ago
    This concurs with what OP is saying, but the statement is in effect misleading. The vaccine induced myocarditis risk is higher in young males. The numbers also indicate this is even higher than the risk from COVID-19 infection in that group. However, in the population in aggregate the vaccine is less likely to cause this side effect than infection.
    - usrusr 5y ago
      My pet hypothesis: people who are into one of the many athletic pastimes, particularly those with a competitive component, will all do exactly one thing when faced with an appointment that comes with an attached "take a rest from exercising afterwards": they will schedule a particularly intensive workout the day before so that those rest days "don't go to waste". (source: I'm one of those and very few in my social circle don't match that pattern) But the risk association might very well be not so much the exercise happening while under immune stress but the processes that happen during recovery doing their thing while under immune stress. Usually immune stress means infection and we don't get to schedule our infections, so this distinction (exercise time vs recovery time) will be very much unexplored. Young males tend to be more into performance-oriented training (competitive, or focused on metrics, or both) than other population groups, and with an actual infection it might even be that the relevant immune stress does not really start before more direct symptoms suggest taking a break. Could be as simple as shifting the "no sports" instruction that comes with the jab a few days backwards.

yaris 5y ago

As I read the text of the study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v...) it directly says: "First, we confirm and extend our previous findings in more than 42 million persons that the risk of hospitalization or death from myocarditis following COVID-19 infection is higher than the risk associated with vaccination in the overall population." Is it another study you have where the risk [] is higher after Moderna/Pfizer than after COVID?

csee 5y ago
This same thing comes up in every discussion of this study. That statement isn't talking about the young male cohort. In the body of the study, it says the same thing that I said above.

arisAlexis 5y ago

This has been debunked even by Nassim Taleb, wrong statistics.

csee 5y ago
Summarize his argument for us?
- arisAlexis 5y ago
  you can find his argument (proof actually) on Twitter by googling
  - csee 5y ago
    Well I googled the name of the study alongside his name and nothing came up.