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If interest rates don't rise, then sure - inflation is likely to show up in higher housing costs, which means you'll deflate away that loan and your asset will
by NovemberWhiskey 5y ago
If interest rates don't rise, then sure - inflation is likely to show up in higher housing costs, which means you'll deflate away that loan and your asset will appreciate.
If interest rates rise, then you have one or two problems.
If your loan isn't at a fixed rate, then you'd better hope you can still afford your mortgage. Say you paid a 20% downpayment on a home worth $375K. A $300K note at 3% is a $1,250 per month expense, but at 8% it's $2,200 a month. People forget, but mortgage rates were 8% as recently as 2000.
Even if your rate is fixed, new buyers have affordability problems due to the same phenomenon, which hits valuations. If you can afford $1,250 a month, maybe you can afford $1,500 after some inflation pads out your pay check.
But, with rates at 8%, that's only a $200K mortgage, so maybe a $375K home is only a $250K home in the new rate environment and you're in negative equity all of a sudden. If you need to sell, then you're losing the initial downpayment and you may still end up owing the bank. If you can't cover it, say goodbye to your creditworthiness.
- rory 5y agoWhile everything you said is true: 1) <10% of the US mortgage market is ARMs. 2) Treasury rates are still super low, even with high CPI inflation. It's not at all obvious interest rates will go up by much even with sustained 5-10% inflation, since society's ratio of capital to productivity is at an unprecedented level.
- NovemberWhiskey 5y agoAt this point, most of those who perform augury on the intentions of the Fed are predicting five to six 25bp interest rate increases before the end of 2023.
- rory 5y agoYes, but fixed mortgage rates aren't affected much by the fed funds rate, compared to treasury yields.