Those seem like good arguments for both (1) and (2) being factors. Not definitive, though. One expects there to be some variation in price changes from sector

Those seem like good arguments for both (1) and (2) being factors. Not definitive, though. One expects there to be some variation in price changes from sector to sector at any time, so only a greater than typical variation would be indicative of particular supply disruptions (or put another way, there are always supply chain disruptions, though maybe not of the current magnitude). Also, increased money supply doesn't immediately get distributed throughout the economy. One expects price increases to first show up in the things that tend to be bought by the people who first got the money. And I'm not sure who got the bulk of the recently-created money...