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I am beginning to think that the fed will try to engineer a situation where wage gains are leading prices in a wage price spiral. Why? Because inflation solves
by 01100011 5y ago
I am beginning to think that the fed will try to engineer a situation where wage gains are leading prices in a wage price spiral. Why? Because inflation solves a world of problems(i.e. unsustainable debt). It avoids cancelling the 'wealth effect' currently deluding half the population into thinking they're rich. Inflation sucks when your wages aren't rising as fast as prices. Inflation isn't so bad, I think, when you are getting paid more but then subsequently prices rise. If a demographic and cultural shift causes a permanent shortage of workers, one could envision a scenario where wages have to rise to compete for talent and in that environment inflation could be tolerated.
Inflation means the fed doesn't have to pop the asset, real estate and commodities bubbles. Those bubbles softly deflate as their prices only drop in real dollars as the USD loses value. A hundred million voters don't wake up feeling poorer, unless they're the suckers who own the fixed rate debt.
As a moron who is currently holding lots of cash, I'm hoping the fed will have the fortitude to fight inflation. History shows they do not, however.
- bittercynic 5y agoIt's a tricky situation to be in. I try to believe that I cannot time the market, time in the market beats timing the market... but just can't bring myself to buy into it right now. It's been so long since we've had a recession, and it seems like we've forgotten the lessons of 2008. It may not be subprime mortgages this time, but lots of people seem to believe asset prices only go up, much like they did in 2007. Maybe this time really is different, but I don't believe it.