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I am looking forward for a day where policy making is aided by AI or some advanced modeling that estimates impact over long time spans. The reality is that a l

I am looking forward for a day where policy making is aided by AI or some advanced modeling that estimates impact over long time spans. The reality is that a lot of terrible policies have been applied over the years due to short term gains (e.g. being re-elected) and no one thought 20+ years down the line. For example, the Italian phenomenon of the so-called baby-pensioni (people that retired when less than 50y and some even 40). At the time it was great, unemployment drop to ~0% overnight and everybody was happy. 40ish years down the line Italy has a crippling debt also because we are still maintaining millions that have been unproductive for almost 40 years now. Someone or something looking at long term repercussions could have avoided this altogether. The same can be said for subsidising travel industry, ... . True, not applying these policies will slow down economic growth in the short term, but if they create such an outcome they probably were never sustainable to begin with. And it's better to have 40years at 2% growth than 15 years at 5% and then 0 for 25.

darebak 5y ago
>I am looking forward for a day where policy making is aided by AI or some advanced modeling that estimates impact over long time spans. Who sets the incentives for the AI? What are we measuring? GDP? "Happiness"? "Goodness"? "Sustainability"? AI overlords are foremost a philosophical problem, then technological. I fail to see how those situations you presented would be better with AI dictators.
- marcyb5st 5y ago
  I said aided, I am not pushing for AI to control our lives. I am arguing for having tools (I mentioned AI and modeling) that could help legislators have a more quantitative measure of how things will change long term. Even better if the forecasts are shared with the public. I am optimistic, and I hope that if back in the 80s the Italian government would have seen the "we are gonna impact in a negative ways the next 2 generations by doing this" they wouldn't have followed through. The goodness, Happiness, sustainability, ... are still in the hands of legislators. In my mind, before proposing something for approval, they can ask the mentioned "oracle" and see how things turn out according to a variety of metrics. We are years/decades to have such predicting power, but that's what I hope to see in the future.
hotpotamus 5y ago
I think this is impossible. It seems like trying to model the weather (or any chaotic system) in the long term, but with the added difficulty that it would have to also model its own impact on the system. But if you want a little laugh at the idea, Mitchell and Webb did a skit: https://youtu.be/owI7DOeO_yg https://youtu.be/owI7DOeO_yg

darebak 5y ago

>I am looking forward for a day where policy making is aided by AI or some advanced modeling that estimates impact over long time spans. Who sets the incentives for the AI? What are we measuring? GDP? "Happiness"? "Goodness"? "Sustainability"? AI overlords are foremost a philosophical problem, then technological. I fail to see how those situations you presented would be better with AI dictators.

marcyb5st 5y ago
I said aided, I am not pushing for AI to control our lives. I am arguing for having tools (I mentioned AI and modeling) that could help legislators have a more quantitative measure of how things will change long term. Even better if the forecasts are shared with the public. I am optimistic, and I hope that if back in the 80s the Italian government would have seen the "we are gonna impact in a negative ways the next 2 generations by doing this" they wouldn't have followed through. The goodness, Happiness, sustainability, ... are still in the hands of legislators. In my mind, before proposing something for approval, they can ask the mentioned "oracle" and see how things turn out according to a variety of metrics. We are years/decades to have such predicting power, but that's what I hope to see in the future.

hotpotamus 5y ago

I think this is impossible. It seems like trying to model the weather (or any chaotic system) in the long term, but with the added difficulty that it would have to also model its own impact on the system. But if you want a little laugh at the idea, Mitchell and Webb did a skit: https://youtu.be/owI7DOeO_yg https://youtu.be/owI7DOeO_yg