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I think the author of the article has absolutely no credential in the discussion given that he barely watches content (despite paying for 6 subscriptions, go fi

I think the author of the article has absolutely no credential in the discussion given that he barely watches content (despite paying for 6 subscriptions, go figure?), however I think the conclusion isn't exactly wrong. I think Spotify, Deezer, Netflix, HBO, etc. are all doomed to fail. They're doomed to fail because the competition is Amazon, Apple, Google, etc. which all have virtually infinite money to inject in those services, while the others only have a single income source. Nobody cares if PrimeVideo runs at a loss for years or even decades, and the stock price of Amazon won't move an inch if PrimeVideo looses watchers. But at some point investors will stop lending money to one-trick monkeys like Spotify and Netflix.

tptacek 5y ago
HBO is Warner Media. They'll be fine. Microsoft thought it was going to own all of media in the early oughts, and produced... Slate and MSNBC. Apple isn't making much of a dent with Apple TV.
- iLoveOncall 5y ago
  But Warner Media is still a small player compared to Amazon for example. I don't think they would close the TV channel, or even the concept of online streaming, but they may decide that it's more advantageous for them to merge with a competitor than try to support their own platform against giants that make 10x their revenue every year. Agreed on Apple for now, but as much as I think it'll take a decade for Netflix to "fail", I think Apple is fine with taking a decade to take over the market with Apple TV.
  - tptacek 5y ago
    This argument is essentially equivalent to saying that giant tech companies will ultimately displace all media companies. At the point where you're predicting Amazon toppling Warner, you've basically decided there is no point in investing in anything but a tech company. The other possibility, I think more plausible, is that companies like Netflix will change what it means to be a media company, and media companies will grow to look more like Netflix and less like Viacom.
  - Jansen333 5y ago
    If Bezos is not there, doubt the person running it will let primevideo burn overall profit. Investors will hunt down the CEOs to force to close it down. Amazon has a long way to go to build up their content. Netflix has huge catalogs now. Just look at their anime section...and tell me who else got that. Amazon has so few contents, most people will afford it thru piracy. As for prime, that is barely covering shipping costs for now. They basically bleeding on the vids. Netflix has direct revenue source from their subscription 100% dedicated for vids. They have netflix button in many tv remote. I have yet to see primevideo button on non-Amazon product prevalent as Netflix. Apple has huge following and customers and yet they cant beat spotify and facebook (remember ping?). Same goes with Microsoft for their bing, encarta and money. Same goes with google with their g+ (died twice). Same goes with Nokia. Same goes with BlackBerry. Same goes with BN vs Amazon. Same goes with Toyota vs GM. Same goes with Linux. It is really for Netflix to lose (e.g. stop making movies series) than for Amazon to beat them. Apple is good in their design. Apple movies now really pathetic in content. They only have appetite for huge profit and markup. Streaming has huge complex deals behind the scenes. Doubt Apple can make it after bleeding loses for a decade. Apple has been making Apple TV hardware for years. Yeah...slow and steady till they reach Netflix level after 5 decades?
- tedunangst 5y ago
  Wait, are you saying I should read websites other than slate?
birdyrooster 5y ago
I remember when working for Netflix there were three moments where I realized I joined a different company than I thought. I realized they combined engineer’s misunderstanding of their business and combined it high salaries provided by similarly confused investors to dominate a single vertical with no appetite to ever compete with the actual tech companies. 1) Seeing the Netflix prototype set top box and learning it was spun out into Roku 2) Hearing leadership repeat the mantra “become HBO before HBO becomes us” 3) Management’s about-face during the Flixter debacle turned into an overreaction against pivoting or building additional verticals outside entertainment
codazoda 5y ago
Netflix has first mover advantage, however, and I think that’s extremely valuable.
- iLoveOncall 5y ago
  How old is online streaming? I don't even remember it being that popular 10 years ago. First mover advantage matters now, not in 10 or 15 years.
  - codazoda 5y ago
    I believe it creates a momentum that can matter for a very long time.
Jansen333 5y ago
Not sure others, but Netflix is the Apple in streaming. They are able to churn out mega hits like Squid Games. Look at Apple TV, reminds me of Steve Jobs effort in Ping the Apple Fecebook years ago. Bezos got other interest in space for now. Google isn't famous for ability to create hits....ahem G+ and G-glass. Disney+ has built-in goodwill from their past. I see many kids these days not into Mickey Mouse stuff compare to 20yrs ago. Disney is trying to build more legacy by buying Marvel and Star Wars. Reminds me a lot of their effort of securing Pixar back then. Problem with this franchises are that they tend to fizzle out years later. See what happen to last few Star Wars movies. However if you have consistency in generating hits like Netflix in the pasts decades, that sounds a lot like Apple. That means they will be able to survive to adapt with new stuff. Unlike those milking the pasts like Star Trek, Bobba Fett, adsense, prime, etc.

tptacek 5y ago

HBO is Warner Media. They'll be fine. Microsoft thought it was going to own all of media in the early oughts, and produced... Slate and MSNBC. Apple isn't making much of a dent with Apple TV.

iLoveOncall 5y ago
But Warner Media is still a small player compared to Amazon for example. I don't think they would close the TV channel, or even the concept of online streaming, but they may decide that it's more advantageous for them to merge with a competitor than try to support their own platform against giants that make 10x their revenue every year. Agreed on Apple for now, but as much as I think it'll take a decade for Netflix to "fail", I think Apple is fine with taking a decade to take over the market with Apple TV.
- tptacek 5y ago
  This argument is essentially equivalent to saying that giant tech companies will ultimately displace all media companies. At the point where you're predicting Amazon toppling Warner, you've basically decided there is no point in investing in anything but a tech company. The other possibility, I think more plausible, is that companies like Netflix will change what it means to be a media company, and media companies will grow to look more like Netflix and less like Viacom.
- Jansen333 5y ago
  If Bezos is not there, doubt the person running it will let primevideo burn overall profit. Investors will hunt down the CEOs to force to close it down. Amazon has a long way to go to build up their content. Netflix has huge catalogs now. Just look at their anime section...and tell me who else got that. Amazon has so few contents, most people will afford it thru piracy. As for prime, that is barely covering shipping costs for now. They basically bleeding on the vids. Netflix has direct revenue source from their subscription 100% dedicated for vids. They have netflix button in many tv remote. I have yet to see primevideo button on non-Amazon product prevalent as Netflix. Apple has huge following and customers and yet they cant beat spotify and facebook (remember ping?). Same goes with Microsoft for their bing, encarta and money. Same goes with google with their g+ (died twice). Same goes with Nokia. Same goes with BlackBerry. Same goes with BN vs Amazon. Same goes with Toyota vs GM. Same goes with Linux. It is really for Netflix to lose (e.g. stop making movies series) than for Amazon to beat them. Apple is good in their design. Apple movies now really pathetic in content. They only have appetite for huge profit and markup. Streaming has huge complex deals behind the scenes. Doubt Apple can make it after bleeding loses for a decade. Apple has been making Apple TV hardware for years. Yeah...slow and steady till they reach Netflix level after 5 decades?
tedunangst 5y ago
Wait, are you saying I should read websites other than slate?

birdyrooster 5y ago

I remember when working for Netflix there were three moments where I realized I joined a different company than I thought. I realized they combined engineer’s misunderstanding of their business and combined it high salaries provided by similarly confused investors to dominate a single vertical with no appetite to ever compete with the actual tech companies. 1) Seeing the Netflix prototype set top box and learning it was spun out into Roku 2) Hearing leadership repeat the mantra “become HBO before HBO becomes us” 3) Management’s about-face during the Flixter debacle turned into an overreaction against pivoting or building additional verticals outside entertainment

codazoda 5y ago

Netflix has first mover advantage, however, and I think that’s extremely valuable.

iLoveOncall 5y ago
How old is online streaming? I don't even remember it being that popular 10 years ago. First mover advantage matters now, not in 10 or 15 years.
- codazoda 5y ago
  I believe it creates a momentum that can matter for a very long time.

Jansen333 5y ago

Not sure others, but Netflix is the Apple in streaming. They are able to churn out mega hits like Squid Games. Look at Apple TV, reminds me of Steve Jobs effort in Ping the Apple Fecebook years ago. Bezos got other interest in space for now. Google isn't famous for ability to create hits....ahem G+ and G-glass. Disney+ has built-in goodwill from their past. I see many kids these days not into Mickey Mouse stuff compare to 20yrs ago. Disney is trying to build more legacy by buying Marvel and Star Wars. Reminds me a lot of their effort of securing Pixar back then. Problem with this franchises are that they tend to fizzle out years later. See what happen to last few Star Wars movies. However if you have consistency in generating hits like Netflix in the pasts decades, that sounds a lot like Apple. That means they will be able to survive to adapt with new stuff. Unlike those milking the pasts like Star Trek, Bobba Fett, adsense, prime, etc.