4 ms·
As other commenters mentioned there was a “high Bayesian prior” for lab leaks, too.
by snowgrove 5y ago
As other commenters mentioned there was a “high Bayesian prior” for lab leaks, too.
- matthewdgreen 5y agoAll of the previous lab leaks were of known viruses that had previously spilled over into humans via natural processes, then were collected and later leaked out (again). I'm not aware of any truly novel viruses that spilled into humans through a lab leak. Are there any examples?
- dnautics 5y agoWhat's your threshold for novelness? We can't truly know just how novel covid-19 is; we don't have sequences from the database of coronaviruses, and even if we did it might have leaked right after it was collected, without having been sequenced yet.
- throw_nbvc1234 5y agoIs "novel" the right criteria here? If Covid didn't have asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic infectiousness, it'd still be novel but may not have become a pandemic. Therefor may not have even been noticed, no tests developed for it, etc...
- Ancapistani 5y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reston_virus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reston_virus
- dnautics 5y agofunny story, my elementary school was across the playground from this place, but moved out of that location the summer before the virus leak.