3 ms·
Covid was already in Europe by December 27th, 2019. The pathogen was first noticed in China on December 29th, 2019, with a few dozen patients hospitalized in Wu
by jlmorton 5y ago
Covid was already in Europe by December 27th, 2019. The pathogen was first noticed in China on December 29th, 2019, with a few dozen patients hospitalized in Wuhan presenting with pneumonia, during peak flu season. China notified the WHO of a pneumonia of unknown cause on December 31st, 2019.
One week before, there were only a few hospitalized patients.
With a few dozen hospitalized patients, you would expect perhaps several hundred patients infected, many asymptomatic, and many with mild symptoms.
Please explain what you would have done to prevent the spread of Covid given these facts, how the virus could have been detected earlier, and what reasonable steps could have prevented global transmission.
We now know that Covid was likely transmitting in China by mid-November 2019, and the earliest case dates to Dec 8. But it's not very easy to identify a novel pathogen when there are single digit numbers of patients presenting with flu-like symptoms during peak flu season.