The Webb was in development for more than a decade. Given that the article is discussing high school and first year college students, there’s going to be a late

The Webb was in development for more than a decade. Given that the article is discussing high school and first year college students, there’s going to be a latency period. I’d guess by the mid-2030s the effects will start to properly manifest, with concomitant hits to research output. Also don’t forget that even with its horrendous STEM situation, America has been the global hegemon for 70 years. One could argue that science education has been worse than the OECD average for half of that time, but being the global hegemon has meant that international students have filled the gap. With the rise of China, education and migration to America will no longer be the status quo for many Asians. America’s loss is China’s gain, something that looks to be a recurring theme of this century.