It would be nice to have a probability distribution over how quickly quantum computers could reach the necessary level, using this paper as just one datapoint a

It would be nice to have a probability distribution over how quickly quantum computers could reach the necessary level, using this paper as just one datapoint and looking at other examples of cryptographic breakthroughs and technological capability curves. By combining such a probability distribution with an estimate of how much damage could be done (or how much profit could be generated) by an enemy breaking elliptic curve encryption, it would then be possible to give a reasoned guess for how much to spend on bringing forward quantum-resistant cryptography.